One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back: MLB Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows a user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game with a max return of $25 for the game.
Many users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $25 back in free bets — essentially five free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were higher limits, usually $50, on the return in free bets for players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2023 was 2.20, you will receive an average of $12 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run "yes" prop.
If you aren't limited, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is still plus-EV for most of the board. If you are limited to the maximum return of $25, an average of two to three games will return your $25 maximum in free bets.
Note: It could take just one game to reach the $25 ceiling if there are five homers in that game.
Here are my three favorite MLB home run prop bets and Dinger Tuesday picks for June 11.
MLB Home Run Props: Dinger Tuesday
When there's a Tuesday game at Great American Ball Park, that's where my Dinger Tuesday search will begin. There's a 24% boost to homers in Cincinnati relative to the league average, according to MLB's Park Factors.
That's the best in the league, and as expected, we have the Guardians-Reds game projected for the most total home runs at 3.42. That gets most of us well past halfway to the maximum bonus bet, which typically requires five home runs.
Guardians starter Triston McKenzie comes into this game with a flyball rate north of 50%, well above the league average 38% rate. While he also has an elevated HR/FB ratio, his hard-hit rate and barrel rate are also above league average.
Long story short, I'm not anticipating any regression for McKenzie since his batted-ball data explains the HR/FB ratio and the ballpark encourages home runs.
That leads me to the Reds' best option: Elly De La Cruz.
The switch hitter has considerably better slugging and ISO numbers against righties, and our models have a fair value of +385 for him to hit a home run tonight. That makes this a solid bet even before considering the Dinger Tuesday promotion.
Twins starter Louie Varland has bounced back and forth between the majors and minors this year and has allowed six home runs in just over 16 innings of work in big-league action.
That's bad, and it's unlikely to get better today thanks to the hitter-friendly weather in Minnesota.
Per our friends at RotoGrinders, the current conditions boost home runs by more than 30%, making our 2.36 total home-run projection in this game fairly modest.
The problem is finding a Colorado hitter to pick, as the Rockies have been the worst offense in the MLB this season. Still, I've landed on Ezequiel Tovar.
He has above-average barrel and hard-hit rates on the season, but his HR/FB ratio is in line with the league average. That's somewhat surprising for a player with home games at Coors Field and suggests some positive regression is coming his way.
Tovar has also been considerably better against righties than lefties, which is another reason to look his way in this matchup.
Given how strong the other two games are today, we probably don't need this pick to max out the bonus bets from the promotion. However, it's a fun long shot I like more than the market, which further raises your chances of maxing out the bonus bets.
The only game outside of Reds vs. Guardians we have projected over three home runs is Rangers vs. Dodgers.
That's partially because of the teams involved — Los Angeles ranks third in home runs on the season — and partially because of the ballpark. Dodger Stadium trails only Great American Ball Park in Park Factor for home runs.
The Rangers' probable starter, Dane Dunning, has pretty ugly batted-ball data, with a barrel rate nearly double the league average. While he doesn't allow an especially high flyball rate, he gives up so much hard contact that his HR/FB ratio sits over 20%.
He's also been especially vulnerable against left-handed hitters, with seven of his 10 home runs given up coming against lefties despite facing slightly more right-handed bats so far in 2024.
That makes Ohtani a fairly easy choice.
It's between him and Freddie Freeman (+450) in terms of left-handed power hitters for the Dodgers, but the price difference isn't enough to swap down to Freeman — especially with some mild uncertainty around who the Rangers' pitcher will be. If they go with a lefty, it hurts Freeman's projections more than Ohtani's.
We have the fair value on Ohtani closer to +300, so this isn't a bet I'd be interested in without the promotion.
However, with this game likely to provide around $15 in free bets on a $25 bet, it works out to solidly plus-EV (especially if you're only going with two games for Dinger Tuesday).
