MLB Home Run Derby Odds, Predictions & Expert Preview
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (Mets) | +305 |
| Gunnar Henderson (Orioles) | +400 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) | +410 |
| Marcell Ozuna (Braves) | +470 |
| Adolis Garcia (Rangers) | +600 |
| Teoscar Hernandez (Dodgers) | +1200 |
| Jose Ramirez (Guardians) | +1400 |
| Alec Bohm (Phillies) | +2400 |
Odds as of 6:20 p.m. ET Monday (via Caesars Sportsbook)
The 2024 Major League Baseball Home Run Derby starts at 8 p.m. ET on Monday night at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The festivities will air live on ESPN.
There are numerous ways to bet on the Home Run Derby, including head-to-head matchups, props, and outright selections. I'll take you through some of those betting markets and provide my thoughts and bets for the 2024 Home Run Derby.
Listed below is the field of eight hitters set to square off and how I project their relative chances compared to the best available listed odds, using our futures tool, as of Sunday night:
Six of the eight hitters are right-handed, with Gunnar Henderson the only pure lefty in addition to switch-hitting Jose Ramirez. Over the last three seasons, Globe Life Field has a higher park factor for right-handed home runs (120, 2nd) than left-handed homers (110, 7th).
2024 MLB Home Run Derby
Each league has four of the eight selections in the field. Based on the above projection, I expect an American League player to win the Derby 61.5% of the time with my top- and bottom-two projected hitters in the field.
You can bet the American League to win the Home Run Derby up to -125 (55.5% implied), at a perceived 5% edge. However, that wager also correlates with my top-two Derby selections — you may not want to double down between the league vs. league prop and outright markets, especially when I'm directly betting against one of the four AL participants.
I bet Bobby Witt Jr. outright on Thursday at +800, noting that he led the field in maximum exit velocity (Max EV), average home run distance and maximum home run distance. Witt also rates second in EV50 — the average of the hardest-hit 50% of a player's batted balls — and third in adjusted exit velocity.
Moreover, Witt rates highly in new bat-tracking metrics, ranking 3rd in bat speed and 2nd in blasts. And the betting market is providing him with a lot of respect to hit the longest home run of the Derby with odds nearly half that of any other player in the field.
I set my initial price target on Witt at +600, but I would take +400 (20% implied) or better after turning these data points into a percentage.
468 feet!
OBLITERATED by Bobby Witt Jr. pic.twitter.com/oCs93wk37E
— MLB (@MLB) May 22, 2024
Assuming the players bat in order of home runs hit on the season, Witt will hit second, which is an exciting spot for a first-round home run leader since he needs to put up a sizable number. I would lay -150 on Witt to advance to the semifinals.
I'd take a similar approach with Henderson, who bests the field in bat-tracking metrics, ranking 1st in bat speed, fast swings, and blasts while rating highly in average batted-ball metrics, too (1st in EV50).
Bat speed appears to be a key data point for Derby success among active former winners, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (15th), Juan Soto (12th), Pete Alonso (21st), Bryce Harper (42nd), Aaron Judge (4th), and Giancarlo Stanton (1st). Last year's first-round leader, Julio Rodriguez, ranks 10th (75.7 mph) — just behind Henderson.
You can play Henderson outright to +400, bet him to make the semifinals to -150, and place a pair of long-shot exactas: Witt over Henderson (+4300 at Caesars) and Henderson over Witt (+5000). Those same exactas or straight forecast bets are both +1500 at DraftKings — don't take below +3000 on either.
I WOULD NOT bet Henderson as the first-round home run leader, which would be a donation, assuming he bats last in Round 1. Henderson only needs to finish in fourth to advance to the next round, and there isn't any extra incentive to hit more homers after he qualifies.
The lone concern in Henderson's profile is his relatively low Max EV (113.1 mph, 56th) and short Max HR distance (430 feet, 113th) compared to his elite bat-tracking data. Henderson may have a higher floor than anyone else, but a lower ceiling than some if he can't hit the bonus distances.
Alonso (2nd in bat speed, 3rd in fast swings and Max EV) is undoubtedly underrated from a pure projection standpoint because I'm not factoring in any prior experience, just batted-ball and bat-tracking data.
The new format — with a maximum of 40 pitches over the same three minutes (in the first and second round) — will help Alonso more than hurt him. In the first round last year, Alonso saw 40 pitches in the first 2:10 and had just 13 homers by that point. He rushed to cram in as many swings as possible — down 41 homers to Julio Rodriguez — and seemingly flustered himself.
Conversely, Ramirez, who ranks last in the field in bat speed, blasts, EV50, and average HR distance, saw 40 pitches in three minutes in his 2022 Derby appearance and only managed 14 home runs while failing to reach the bonus distance. Ramirez Under 19.5 (+100) or 20.5 (-115) seems logical based on his past performance and underlying data points.
I would also fade Ramirez to -150 and -120 in head-to-head matchups against Teoscar Hernandez (projected 60.3% favorite, -152 implied) and Alec Bohm (projected 55.8% favorite, -126 implied). For context, I would have assumed I would show value on a player like Alonso at around -250 against Ramirez, but my projection for Alonso over Ramirez was only 65.7% (-192 implied).
Lastly, the market for longest HR distance is 484.5 after highs of 484 in Seattle (by Luis Robert) and 482 in Los Angeles (by Soto) over the last two years. You can get Under at -110 domestically in a market juiced -120 to the under offshore. I'll bet that small overnight and add more before the competition if the line ticks higher.
Zerillo's HR Derby Bets for Monday, July 15
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- Exacta or Straight Forecast: Bobby Witt Jr. defeats Gunnar Henderson (+4300, 0.05u) at Caesars
- Exacta or Straight Forecast: Gunnar Henderson defeats Bobby Witt Jr. (+5000, 0.05u) at Caesars
- Longest Home Run: Under 484.5 Feet (-110, 0.25u) at DraftKings
- Make Semifinals: Bobby Witt Jr. (-150, 0.5u) at DraftKings
- Make Semifinals: Gunnar Henderson (-145, 0.5u) at DraftKings
- Round 1 Leader: Bobby Witt Jr. (+600, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Round 1 H2H: Alec Bohm over Jose Ramirez (+105, 0.5u) at DraftKings
- Round 1 H2H: Teoscar Hernandez over Jose Ramirez (-145, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings
- Round 1 Total: Jose Ramirez Under 20.5 Home Runs (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars
- Win Home Run Derby: Gunnar Henderson (+500, 0.2u) at DraftKings
- Win Home Run Derby: Bobby Witt Jr. (+800, 0.25u) at Caesars
Recommended Bets
- American League to Win the Home Run Derby (-110) at Caesars
