With the help of Action's PRO Prop Projections, I'm building a home runround robin for the MLB slate on Saturday, March 29.
Those PRO Projections help me find the best odds for each player to hit a home run at various sportsbooks and the edge our model gives relative to those lines.
While I'm not just blindly taking the five biggest edges our prop tool recommends, the methodology here is pretty simple: I'm looking for players who our model perceives as undervalued in the market, but I'm also being sure to mix-and-match games.
It's possible that our model will recommend both Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts as two of the five biggest edges on a given day, for example, but I'm more likely going to select one of them so I have more games represented and more opportunities across the board. (Though yes, there will be plenty of games this year where both Ohtani and Betts homer).
Thus, more often than not you're going to see me picking five players from five different games. Given the long odds even a two-leg parlay pays out, there may be plenty of instances of days where we hit zero, but even two of the five players homering makes us a profit, and that's what we're shooting for. Anything beyond that is a bonus.
On Opening Day, I built a five-leg round robin playing combinations of twos and hit one of those 10 combinations. Cedric Mullins of the Orioles and Nolan Arenado of the Cardinals both went deep, cashing us a home run parlay at 101/1 odds.
Friday night, we hit one of our five home run bets — Mookie Betts — which wasn't enough to cash.
Thus, after two days we're +4.1u on home run round robin bets.
For Saturday, I've taken a look at the projections and built this five-leg home run parlay. If you play them in twos, it's 10 different two-leg parlays, and I play each combination at 0.1 unit, so we're risking one unit total. Additionally, I've provided a quickslip you can click on that will automatically add these five players to your bet slip at FanDuel.
Using the Action PRO Prop Projections, here is my home run round robin for Saturday. Remember, my recommendation is to play them in 10 combinations of two, but it's worth noting that if lightning strikes and all five players go deep, that parlay pays out at a hilarious +1668875. Please bet responsibly.
MLB Home Run Parlay for Saturday, March 29
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 2:10 p.m. | |
| 3:07 p.m. | |
| 4:10 p.m. | |
| 4:10 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
