One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back: MLB Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows users to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Many users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum of $25 back in free bets — essentially five free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were higher limits, usually $50, on the return in free bets for players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2023 was 2.20, you will receive an average of $12 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run "yes" prop.
If you aren't limited, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable because the promo is still plus-EV for most of the board. If you are limited to the maximum return of $25, an average of two to three games will return your $25 maximum in free bets.
Note: It could take just one game to reach the $25 ceiling if there are five homers in that game.
Here are my three favorite MLB home run picks for Dinger Tuesday for August 6.
(Maximize your Dinger Tuesday action with our FanDuel promo code.)
Billy Ward Makes His MLB Home Run Bets for Dinger Tuesday
There's a good chance this game doesn't play due to the weather. If it does, a midgame delay could lead to some better pitching matchups on both sides of the ball, with starters being pulled early and/or lesser-quality relievers.
In addition, I expect to be able to maximize the $25 Dinger Tuesday bonus with our other two games, so we can take a chance on the PPD here.
Plus, it's not like Plan A from a pitching standpoint is all that strong for the Angels. They're rolling out Davis Daniels, who has a 4.91 ERA with three home runs allowed through four starts/22 innings pitched this season.
Yankee Stadium is also a top-three stadium for home runs in the majors.
While Aaron Judge would be the obvious choice, we have a better value on Torres. He has just ten homers on the season but has been somewhat unlucky with an 8% HR/FB ratio, well below his career mark of 13.5%.
One of the reasons I'm comfortable possibly punting one of our picks is due to their being a game at Coors Field. While Coors is somewhat overrated as a home run park, it's still a top-ten stadium, with the weather expected to boost home runs a further 13% over the Coors average.
All told, we have a mean projection of just over three for total long balls in this game alone.
Most of those coming from the Mets, who have the third-best wRC+ in baseball against lefties and are taking on southpaw Kyle Freeland. Freeland has allowed a barrel rate over 10% and a hard hit rate over 42% this season, both well above league average.
Unfortunately, the prices on Mets hitters aren't great. With the possible exception of Taylor, who we have slightly more likely to go yard than his +400 odds imply.
If you want slightly safer exposure to this game, we have the odds on Pete Alonso just ten cents off his +265 FanDuel line, so that's an option as well.
This game is also projecting for north of three total home runs, thanks to the strength of both offenses as well as the ballpark. Dodgers stadium ranks behind only Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati for the best home run park in the league.
Phillies lefty Cristopher Sanchez has been good at keeping the ball on the ground this year, with an elite 19.2% fly ball rate. That means I prefer to target the Phillies against Clayton Kershaw, who hasn't been his old self since returning from injury.
Kershaw has a 35% flyball rate, with plenty of hard contact in his first two starts back from injury.
Plus, Philly has Nick Castellanos. His OPS is more than 100 points higher against lefties than righties, with a very strong .225 ISO as well.
I'm not sure if a vice presidential nomination counts for the "Castellanos home run during a major news announcement" but we have that going for us as well. He was the most bet player to hit a home run yesterday, making this a perfect flop lag situation with a better matchup.
