One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back: MLB Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows users to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Many users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum of $25 back in free bets — essentially five free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were higher limits, usually $50, on the return in free bets for players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2023 was 2.20, you will receive an average of $12 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run "yes" prop.
If you aren't limited, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable because the promo is still plus-EV for most of the board. If you are limited to the maximum return of $25, an average of two to three games will return your $25 maximum in free bets.
Note: It could take just one game to reach the $25 ceiling if there are five homers in that game.
Here are my three favorite MLB home run picks for Dinger Tuesday for August 6.
(Maximize your Dinger Tuesday action with our FanDuel promo code.)
MLB Home Run Prop Bets for Dinger Tuesday (8/13)
Billy Ward's Home Run Best Bet for Cardinals vs Reds
With Dinger Tuesday prioritizing finding spots where there could be a lot of total home runs hit, I'm always interested when there's games at Great American Ball Park. The Reds' home stadium is the best place in baseball for home runs, boosting left-handed hitters 40% over league average.
Fortunately, we also have two fly-ball pitchers taking the mound in Hunter Greene and Erick Fedde. Greene's rate is bad at 46.8%, but he's done a good job limiting the long ball with a 6.8% HR/FB rate.
Fedde has a 39.9% fly-ball rate and a 10.4% HR/FB rate, plus much higher barrel and hard-hit rates.
That makes "Reds lefties" my starting point — especially since Fedde has a considerably higher ISO allowed to lefties. While switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz (+400) is the obvious option, I prefer Friedl at the price. We have their projections reasonably close, so the extra two dollars in value is worth it.
Billy Ward's Home Run Best Bet for Yankees vs White Sox
While the park isn't quite as attractive — Guaranteed Rate Field is essentially average for home runs — we have this game projected for the second-most home runs on the slate.
New York has a massive team total as it takes on the White Sox and starter Jonathan Cannon. Cannon has struggled against lefties, allowing seven home runs in 154 plate appearances compared to just three against righties in a similar workload.
With how much teams are pitching around Aaron Judge (+190) — and to a lesser extent Juan Soto (+285) — it's not worth taking the short lines on those players, especially with other books offering promotions that boost odds of specific players.
The best value based on our models is on Wells, who we have around +400. While that's not a massive edge, it's more than made up for by the bonus value we expect to get from this game, which is projecting for around three total home runs.
Billy Ward's Home Run Best Bet for Blue Jays vs Angels
Picking a third game on today's slate is somewhat tricky, as the two previously mentioned contests are lapping the field in terms of home run projection.
This one is solid as well, though, largely thanks to the Blue Jays. Angel Stadium is about 10% better for home runs than the Rogers Centre, and the Blue Jays have plenty of power in their lineup. Plus they get a solid matchup against Carson Fulmer, who has a 42.5% fly-ball rate and above-average barrel and hard-hit rates.
This is the rare case where the obvious answer is also probably the correct one. Guerrero has 10 home runs since the start of July, or one every 3.5 games. This is an above-average spot for him based on the matchup and stadium, so his expected rate for today is a bit better than that.
We have the fair line at +280, so this is a nice little edge while also helping ensure we max out the Dinger Tuesday promotion.
