I have three MLB home run props to target for Thursday, April 24.
I'm targeting Rafael Devers against Bryan Woo and the Mariners, alongside a pair of lefties against the regressing Jacob deGrom.
Find my MLB home run prop bets and picks for Thursday below.
Note: A parlay of these home run picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as smaller straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds Today — 4/24
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 1:35 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for April 24
Rafael Devers Home Run (+475)
@ Mariners (SP: RHP Bryan Woo)
Rafael Devers has cost me a lot of money this season, but the underlying numbers are too good for him not to be hitting bombs.
He has a massive hard contact (63%) and barrel rates (21%) this season, both of which are career highs. He has 13 barrels on the season, so there is no real reason why he should only be at two homers.
Bryan Woo has been walloped against lefties in his career (1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed), so it's a good matchup for Devers and his lefty power.
I make the fair odds on Devers to hit a home run around +400, so this is a solid bet.
Tyler Soderstrom Home Run (+425)
vs. Rangers (SP: RHP Jacob deGrom)
Tyler Soderstrom's odds shouldn't be this high, even against Jacob deGrom.
The Rangers' righty starter isn't the same pitcher he used to be. Specifically, he's been crushed by lefties this year, with a below-average strikeout rate, a fly-ball rate allowed over 50%, and nearly four homers allowed per nine innings.
It's a good ballpark for homers, and the ball should fly today with double-digit breezes toward the outfield.
I make the fair price on this home run prop under +400, so there's value in Soderstrom.
Lawrence Butler Home Run (+450)
@ Rangers (SP: RHP Jacob deGrom)
I really like the lefties for Sacramento today.
As mentioned, deGrom is struggling against lefties. Meanwhile, Lawrence Butler is one of the better left-handed power hitters in MLB. And the weather will be hitter-friendly at the park.
I make the fair home run price for Butler closer to +375, so I love the value on this prop.
