MLB Home Run Props | Bet Davis Schneider, David Fry & Wilyer Abreu (Friday, May 31)
Photo by Brian Fluharty/Getty Images. Pictured: Wilyer Abreu (Red Sox)
Baseball betting is one of a kind. Diving into a full MLB slate every day is grueling, and sometimes, edges are nowhere to be found with a side or total.
But there are always opportunities to fade pitchers.
One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases and home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are almost always plus-money, and home run props can often reach the +700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s.
In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot — though it's important to note the rarity of hitting that feat. Like slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers.
Today's lottery ticket comes with +21587 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
MLB Home Run Props
Davis Schneider (Blue Jays)
Vs. Pirates, 7:07 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Bailey Falter (LHP)
Bailey Falter has been pitching out of his mind in May — 2.73 ERA, three straight quality starts — but his underlying numbers suggest this is nothing but a mirage.
Falter ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in strikeout rate (14.5%), barrels (10%) and ground-ball rate (33.9%). That means he’s often pitching to contact, most of which end up as fly balls and with a high exit velocity off the bat.
Oh, and his expected metrics (5.06 xERA, 4.8 xFIP) sit much higher than his current 3.55 ERA.
Falter has benefitted from a .199 BABIP, a number surely regressing in the near-future. Despite his success, the southpaw is still dealing with home run problems, allowing seven over his last seven starts.
I’ll be on multiple Blue Jays to take Falter deep on Friday, but the one I like the most is Davis Schneider. Over the last week, we've started to see Schneider become comfortable in his leadoff role — three doubles and a home run — while posting a 14.6 barrel rate in the process.
Schneider continues to have an elite eye and has seen his hard-hit rate rise (40.8%) from his rookie season, while strikeouts have dipped. While he’s hitting just .231 against lefties, he does have an .832 OPS. His 131 wRC+ is among the best on the Blue Jays, and he leads the team in isolated power (.282).
Last season, Schneider came up and was an instant lefty killer. He had a whopping 245 wRC+ and .512 ISO. Given his barrel rate remaining in the mid-teens, it’s only a matter of time before a power surge comes for the 25-year-old.
His matchup on Friday is a perfect one to find the bleachers.
Pick: Davis Schneider to Hit a Home Run (+430, FanDuel)
David Fry (Guardians)
Vs. Nationals, 7:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Patrick Corbin (LHP)
Patrick Corbin continues to pitch in the majors despite being tattooed nearly every time he takes the mound.
The left-hander has allowed a career-worst .322 xBA and 48.8% hard-hit rate through the first two months. His xERA remains in the mid 6s, all while his strikeouts (13.2%) continue to decline.
Over the last two starts, Corbin has allowed five home runs. He's a high ground-ball pitcher, but that doesn't stop opponents from barreling one up on the southpaw.
That brings us to one of the hottest hitters in baseball against left-handed pitching. He plays on the Guardians and no, he’s actually not Jose Ramirez. Rather it’s the out-of-nowhere splash from David Fry guiding that middle of the order.
In the month of May against lefties, Fry has a 325 wRC+ and .565 isolated power. He’s had 30 plate appearances — seven walks — with four home runs and a 50% extra-base hit rate in that span.
His numbers are eye-popping. Fry has an elite eye and finds the sweet spot on 43% of balls in play. Last year, he barreled balls often, but we’ve seen a much better eye and improvements across the board (.280 xBA vs. .243).
He does have an extremely high walk rate — 16 in 64 plate appearances vs. LHP this season — so I don’t blame you if you look for runs scored or hits+runs+RBI for Fry.
But I’m going to continue to ride his hot bat at the plate as Fry continues to crush the baseball.
Pick: David Fry to Hit a Home Run (+600, BetMGM)
Wilyer Abreu (Red Sox)
Vs. Tigers, 7:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Pitcher: Kenta Maeda (RHP)
Let’s continue to fade pitchers on the decline and target Kenta Maeda out in Boston tonight.
The 36-year-old righty has seen his strikeout rate nearly halve this season (15.8%), seeing a drop off in velocity across his entire arsenal.
Maeda has allowed a career-worst 10.3 barrel rate and opponents have an xSLG of .491 against the veteran. He's predominantly a fly-ball pitcher, relying on inducing soft contact in 2024.
Rafael Devers is the obvious option here to go lefty-on-right, but I actually believe there’s more value with rookie Wilyer Abreu. He's posted a 12% barrel rate this season, and while his strikeout numbers are a bit high (27.1%), he's crushed right-handed pitching.
All six home runs have come against righties and he has a 50% extra-base hit rate. His isolated power (.252) and wRC+ (153) sit among the elite. Abreu’s spot in the order ahead of Devers also allows him to see better pitches — a huge plus here.
Maeda is not an overpowering pitcher by any means and should be giving up plenty of deep flies on Friday.
I’m going to bite on Abreu, who's sustained strong numbers against right-handed pitching throughout the opening two months of the season.
Pick: Wilyer Abreu to Hit a Home Run (+520, FanDuel)
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Friday, May 31
- Davis Schneider
- David Fry
- Wilyer Abreu
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $2,158.70.
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