MLB Home Run Prop Picks: Dinger Tuesday Predictions
(Photo by Brandon Vallance/Getty Images) Pictured: Heliot Ramos
One of the most popular promotions in the sports betting community is back: MLB Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows a user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether the player you bet on homers, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Many users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $25 back in free bets — essentially five free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were higher limits, usually $50, on the return in free bets for players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2023 was 2.20, you will receive an average of $12 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run "yes" prop.
If you aren't limited, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is still plus-EV for most of the board. If you are limited to the maximum return of $25, an average of two to three games will return your $25 maximum in free bets.
Note: It could take just one game to reach the $25 ceiling if there are five homers in that game.
Here are my three favorite MLB home run prop picks and Dinger Tuesday predictions for June 18.
MLB Home Run Prop Picks: Dinger Tuesday
Yankee Stadium is the best place on this week's slate for home runs, according to MLB Park Factors, with an 18% boost to the long ball. That partially explains why this game is projecting for a slate-high 3.23 home runs on Tuesday, enough to get you well past the halfway point toward maximizing the Dinger Tuesday promotion at five home runs.
The other part that explains this projection is the hitters featured in tonight's game. The MLB's home-run leaderboard features five players from this contest inside the top 10, including the leader (Aaron Judge) and number two (Gunnar Henderson).
I like targeting the Baltimore side of things tonight thanks to the pitching matchup. Yankees starter Nestor Cortes has a fly-ball rate over 50% (league average is 37.7%), but a below average HR/FB ratio. His barrel and hard-hit rates are both also above league average, so the HR/FB ratio is likely just luck, not because he's only giving up weak contact.
Henderson at +390 would probably be the safest pick today, but we're projecting better value on Adley Rutschman. His true odds are around +470, making this a slight edge, even without the promotion.
The matchup also favors the switch-hitting Rutschman more. He has a .693 slugging percentage against lefties, with six of his 14 home runs coming against them despite less than a third of his at bats coming from that side of the plate.
While the park is nearly exactly league average in terms of home runs, the weather is a huge factor in Chicago tonight. This game should see more than a 20% boost to home runs, according to the WeatherEdge tool from our friends at RotoGrinders.
Unfortunately, one of the teams involved is the White Sox, but we're still showing a solid overall projection thanks to the strength of the Astros' lineup.
They're taking on rookie starter Jonathan Cannon, who has elevated hard-hit and barrel rates through his first four big league starts. It's a small sample size, but given the conditions and opponent, it should be a tough night for him.
There's plenty of options on Houston worth considering, but I'm going with Yainer Diaz. Our models have the fair value for him to hit a home run at +320, making this a considerable edge.
He has an elite 50% hard-hit rate on the season, more than 10% above the league average, so if he can just get one in the air, the wind should do the rest.
Both the Cubs and White Sox are at home tonight, and the wind that's impacting the ball at Guaranteed Rate Field is likely to have an even bigger effect at Wrigley. Per the WeatherEdge tool, these conditions boost home runs more than 70% at Wrigley Field.
While we should take that number with a grain of salt — especially considering the moderate 31 game sample size — it's still an encouraging sign.
It's not an ideal pitching matchup on either side for home runs, though it's worth noting that these bullpens rank fifth and sixth in terms of most homers allowed this season.
Of the two starters, I prefer to target the Cubs' Justin Steele. He's been good this year, but his 38% fly-ball rate is much higher than Logan Webb's 20% mark.
I'm targeting Heliot Ramos thanks to his absurd platoon splits against lefties. He has five home runs in just 44 plate appearances against southpaws, with a 56% hard-hit rate. His HR/FB ratio against lefties is also an obviously unsustainable 55%, but given his underlying numbers and the wind, his odds are strong.
How would you rate this article?