I've been hot with homer picks to the hit the season, cashing on Oneil Cruz, Heliot Ramos and Kyle Schwarber on consecutive days, and I'm back with more MLB home run props and picks for Monday, March 31.
My six favorite home run prop bets for Monday include Bobby Witt Jr. against the Brewers, Anthony Santander against the Nationals and Kyle Tucker against the Athletics, plus Yordan Alvarez, Matt Chapman and Heliot Ramos in the Giants–Astros game.
As always, I believe there's value on each of these players to homer, and I've also grouped three of them into a long-shot home run parlay.
MLB Home Run Prop Bets, Picks — Monday, March 31
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 4:10 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 8:10 p.m. | |
| 8:10 p.m. | |
| 8:10 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Royals vs. Brewers MLB Player Prop: Bobby Witt Home Runs
Bobby Witt Jr.
Home Run (+425)
We don't have a big sample size of Elvin Rodriguez in the majors, but in the small 33-inning sample size, he has already given up 12 HRs. He grades out as an above-average matchup for power, and with today's game in a dome, we don't have to worry about weather conditions.
Witt is a good HR hitter, with 32 last season and 30 the season before. And looking at his underlying numbers, he's likely due for some positive regression.
I have the true odds around +350, making this a great bet.
Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run (+425)
Nationals vs. Blue Jays MLB Player Prop: Value on Santander
Anthony Santander
Home Run (+420)
Santander is coming off a massive year for HRs — now he's on a new team and in a great spot.
Michael Soroka gave up 1.42 HR/9 last season and with this game being played in a dome, we don't have to worry about weather.
I have the true odds here for Santander around +350.
Pick: Anthony Santander Home Run (+420)
Giants vs. Astros MLB Player Prop: Yordan Due?
Yordan Alvarez
Home Run (+390)
This is strictly a price play.
Jordan Hicks is a decent pitcher who grades out as an average matchup for lefty power. He allowed 0.98 HR/9 last season, but given that he pitched in a pitcher-friendly park, that number should be higher.
Alvarez is one of the best power hitters in the league and is likely going to get to 50 HRs in a season at some point in his career.
This game is being played in the dome in Houston, so we don't have to worry about weather, and I have the true odds here close to +300.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+390)
Giants vs. Astros MLB Player Prop: Heliot a Sneaky HR Play
Heliot Ramos
Home Run (+600)
I've already talked about how much power Ramos has, and he gets a massive ballpark upgrade here going to Houston.
Ramos gets a slightly above-average matchup vs. Ronel Blanco; I have the true odds below +500, making this a great bet.
Pick: Heliot Ramos Home Run (+600)
Giants vs. Astros MLB Player Prop: Good Spot to Back Chapman
Matt Chapman
Home Run (+480)
