The Monday Major League Baseball schedule features a modest 10-game slate, and I'm all over it with five MLB home run props and picks.
I've looked into the odds and found value on five sluggers to potentially go deep, including Bobby Witt Jr., Rafael Devers, Pete Alonso, Anthony Santander and Mookie Betts.
Find my MLB home run prop bets for Monday night below.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Bets Today — 4/11
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
| 10:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Home Run Picks for April 14
Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run (+450)
@ Yankees (SP: RHP Carlos Carrasco)
Bobby Witt Jr. is in a fantastic spot today and luckily for us, the odds don't reflect it at all.
The matchup is a great one against Yankees right-hander Carlos Carrasco, who isn't remotely close to the same pitcher he was in his heyday. Carrasco's allowed close to 2 HR/9 to righties over the last few years.
The weather isn't bad for hitting and Witt's underlying numbers show he's due for some good positive regression.
I have the true odds on Witt today 100 points lower, making this a great EV bet.
Rafael Devers Home Run (+420)
@ Rays (SP RHP Shane Baz)
Rafael Devers has been off to a rough start to the season, but the underlying numbers show he's due for some massive positive regression.
He's sitting at a 17.5% barrel rate on the year, which would be the highest of his career, and his fly-ball and hard-contact numbers are consistent with the rest of his career. He's playing in a great ballpark over in Tampa, where the park (George M. Steinbrenner Field) favors lefties. The weather is in the high 70s with the wind blowing out.
Rays starter Shane Baz isn't a bad pitcher, but he's been an above-average matchup for left-handed mashers.
I have the true odds on Devers around +350.
Anthony Santander Home Run (+400)
vs. Braves (SP: RHP Grant Holmes)
Looking at the matchup on paper, this is a bad one for Anthony Santander — but the underlying numbers show that this is a slightly above average one.
Braves starter Grant Holmes hasn't been in the big leagues long, but in the small sample size, he has allowed zero HRs to lefties. Looking at the underlying numbers, he's around an average fly-ball pitcher with an average K rate, so the regression could come soon.
Santander isn't off to a great start with his new team, but there is no reason to believe that will continue. He hit 44 HRs last season and he's too good of a hitter to have this continue.
I have the true odds on Santander around +350.
Pete Alonso Home Run (+390)
@ Twins (SP: RHP Joe Ryan)
Pete Alonso is off to a good start to the season with four home runs and 1.091 OPS in 15 games.
