It's a modest eight-game slate for Monday, April 21, but there are still some plays I like in the MLB home run prop market.
Tonight, I'm targeting two first basemen as I see value on the emerging Kyle Manzardo (against the Yankees) and veteran slugger Pete Alonso (against Aaron Nola and the Phillies).
Find my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Monday night below.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds Today — 4/21
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:10 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for April 21
Kyle Manzardo Home Run (+575)
vs. Yankees (SP: RHP Clarke Schmidt)
Guardians first baseman Kyle Manzardo has been absolutely great in the home run department this season — he has six in 20 games.
And the underlying numbers are even better, with a barrel rate over 20% and superb fly-ball and hard-contact numbers.
The matchup against Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt is slightly above average for lefty power; he has allowed 1.17 HR/9 in his career to go along with decent hard-contact and fly-ball numbers.
The weather in Cleveland isn't bad, with temperatures around 70 degrees during game time, but the wind is blowing out to right field at 17 mph, which should aid left-handed bats.
I have the true odds here nearly 100 points lower, making this a great bet.
Pete Alonso Home Run (+450)
vs. Phillies (SP: RHP Aaron Nola)
I don't love the weather today in New York, but these odds more than make up for it.
Mets slugger Pete Alonso is off to a great start to the season with six homers in 22 games.
The underlying numbers are the best of his career — he has a hard-hit rate near 42% and a barrel rate over 22%.
He gets a matchup against the Phillies' Aaron Nola, who is a good pitcher, but he has been a plus matchup for power over the past few seasons and grades out as a plus matchup for righty power this season.
I have the true odds for an Alonso homer nearly 100 points lower.
