It's a busy Sunday in baseball with 16 games on the slate, which means I have some MLB home run props and picks.
I'm targeting three AL West sluggers today as I like the value on Yordan Alvarez against the Twins, Brent Rooker against the Rockies and Mike Trout against the Guardians.
Note: While a parlay of these home run picks isn't our formal recommendation, we've put together an easy way to parlay them below via BetMGM.
MLB Home Run Props, Sunday Picks
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 2:10 p.m. | |
| 3:10 p.m. | |
| 4:07 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Astros vs. Twins Home Run Prop Pick
Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+300)
Home Run (+300)
Twins starter Chris Paddack isn't a terrible pitcher, but he struggles heavily with the long ball, sitting at 1.48 HR/9 in his career — and he's been worse in recent years.
He's a great matchup for power, and the weather is only slightly below average for hitting.
I have the true odds for a Yordan Alvarezhome run at +270, making this a good EV bet.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+300)
Athletics vs. Rockies Home Run Pick
Brent Rooker Home Run (+425)
Home Run (+425)
At this point, I'm likely just going to keep hammering Brent Rooker to hit a home run every game until the books figure it out.
Rooker may hit 50 HRs after hitting 39 last season despite playing in one of the worst hitting parks in the league.
It's a little cold at Coors Field today, but it still grades out as an above-average ballpark for HRs — even at this temperature.
Rockies top prospect Chase Dollander is making his first start, and while he may be a good pitcher at some point in his career, there's a decent chance he has the jitters — he grades out as an above-average matchup for righty power.
I have the true odds well under +400, making this a great EV bet.
Pick: Brent Rooker Home Run (+425)
Guardians vs. Angels Home Run Pick
Mike Trout Home Run (+400)
Home Run (+400)
