Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home runprops can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +14476 odds
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Phillies vs. Braves, 7:20 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: T. Walker (RHP)
This follows a similar thought process of Alec Bohm, though the split isn’t the main reason why I’m taking Riley here. I’ve watched a majority of his at-bats over the last week and he’s been locked in at the plate.
Riley enters on an eight-game hit streak where he’s gone over 1.5 total bases in 6-of-8 (75%). He parked two in the bleachers against Aaron Nola on Thursday night and had doubles in the previous two games.
Everything is clicking at the plate for Riley. He ranks in the top 2% of all hitters in max exit velocity — 83rd percentile in average — and has seen his barrels start to increase in the tail end of May.
A positive note too is that Riley has seen his walk rate rise, which shows more plate discipline.
He draws a favorable matchup against Taijuan Walker, who has struggled across the board. His barrel rate sits around 8% and his xSLG has once again risen above .420. He’s always home run prone and with shaky command, Riley should see plenty of appetizing pitches.
I am backing Riley's over 1.5 total bases (+110) prop for .5u at DraftKings and throwing .1u on him to hit another home run (+525) at Caesars.
Bobby Witt Jr, Kansas City Royals
Nationals vs. Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: P. Corbin (LHP)
It’s Patrick Corbin Day, so what better way to celebrate than a prop against the left-hander?
Corbin has been running on a bit of luck over the past month (25 IP, 8 runs) but has concerning metrics across the board. His xBA is .323 and xSLG .524, both career worsts. His xERA has jumped above 6.00 once again while his strikeout rate continues to decline (13.8%).
All this to say he’s a very hittable pitcher that should be crushed way more than he has. Enter Bobby Witt Jr., who has a 126 wRC+ against southpaws with an .843 OPS.
Despite being a middle infielder, Witt can crush the ball. His max exit velocity ranks inside the top 10% of all hitters and his barrel rate (11.2%) and xSLG (.472) have both increased from his rookie season.
Witt is also one of the fastest players in baseball and singles can turn into doubles quickly. He doesn’t walk much — not that Corbin walks many batters — which means we should see the ball put into play consistently.
He has been a bit unlucky in the grand scheme of things against left-handed pitching, too. His BABIP is .233, but he grades out well above average (.286 ISO, too).
This is one of the rare situations I’m taking a (-125) on his over 1.5 total bases prop — to win .5u — and dabbling on him to find the bleachers (+550) for .1. Both are at DraftKings.
As Sean Zerillo always says, hi Patrick.
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros
Astros vs. Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: J. Kaprielian (RHP)
James Kaprielian and the Oakland Athletics' pitching staff are downright abysmal. The offense hasn’t been the issue, but there’s clear problems on the mound. Tasked with the start once again, I’m fading Kaprielian, who has a 6.37 xERA, .485 xSLG and 9.6 barrel rate.
Even though it’s the obvious choice, I love Yordan Alvarez in this righty-lefty matchup. He ranks inside the top 5% of all hitters in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xSLG, xwOBA and barrel rate.
He is one of the scariest hitters to face and you often can’t pitch around him given his sandwich spot in the order. Eight of his home runs have come against right-handed pitching and he’s essentially split proof — his OPS is .978 or better against both righties and lefties.
Alvarez is also having himself a way better month in May — average and slugging has jumped from .267/.507 to .324/.662 from April — and Jose Altuve’s return to the lineup should only help the slugger.
At (+105) at BetMGM I’m throwing .5u on Alvarez to hit over 1.5 total bases and an additional .1u on HR (+300).
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Friday, May 26
- Austin Riley (+525)
- Bobby Witt Jr (+550)
- Yordan Alvarez (+300)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at DraftKings comes in at $1,457.62
