Baseball betting is one of a kind. Diving into a full slate each day is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +17932 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Jake Fraley, Cincinnati Reds
Reds vs. Orioles, 7:05 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (RHP)
Kyle Gibson remains a fade candidate for me. Across the board there are concerns for the 35-year-old righty who has an xERA near 5 and has seen his numbers dip across the board this season.
For starters, his chase and whiff rate are down. He already struggled to overpower opponents so using a deep arsenal to generate swings out of the zone was a necessity. That’s not coming as often and he’s been hit hard in the process.
His barrel rate has jumped a percent and he’s posted a career-worst 43.4 hard-hit% in 2023. Strikeouts are down, walks are up and his xBA (.273) ranks in the bottom 20% of all pitchers. His only above-average area remains forcing ground balls (44%) and walk rate (56th percentile).
If you want to talk a 180 from past years, look no further than Jake Fraley. The lefty has post career-bests across the board, including but not limited to xBA (.263), barrel% (8.6), xSLG (.426) and strikeout rate (16.7%).
He’s also been crushing the ball in the month of June. In just 46 at-bats, Fraley is hitting .326 with six home runs and a 1.143 OPS. He has a 140 wRC+ and .234 ISO against right-handed pitching, the latter being a team-best among those with consistent at-bats.
And while I rarely ever take this into account, Fraley is 3-for-4 with a pair of home runs lifetime against Gibson. He will be batting in the middle of the Reds lineup and is more than live to make an impact on Wednesday night in an expected high-scoring game.
I’m placing .5u on Fraley to get over 1.5 total bases (+165) at bet365, with a .1u sprinkle on HR (+750) at BetMGM.
Pete Alonso, New York Mets
Brewers vs. Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Wade Miley (LHP)
It’s been a quiet month for Pete Alonso. Since returning from the injured list, the slugging first baseman has just five hits and a pair of home runs. But it’s what he’s done over the last few games that makes me believe he’s about to break out of this slump.
When Alonso really struggles, he begins to chase out of the zone and strike out often. His first game back from injury, he was 0-for-4 with three strikeouts. In his first four games, he struck out eight times.
But over his last five, he has only struck out once. He’s been putting the ball in play and seeing the ball well — they just haven’t fallen for base hits. In the series opener against Milwaukee, Alonso had the two hardest-hit balls, both of which were outs. Now he draws a favorable matchup on Wednesday in a perfect place to bounce back.
There’s not much to add about Alonso’s bat. He missed a couple weeks and still has 24 home runs. He ranks in the top 10% of all hitters in max exit velocity, xSLG and barrel rate. He also crushes left-handed pitching, with seven home runs and a 56% extra-base hit rate. He’s just behind teammate Francisco Lindor in both wRC+ (135) and ISO (.316), too.
Wade Miley takes the mound for the Brewers and he’s really struggled this season with limiting barrels. He’s nearly doubled in rate and has seen his xBA and xSLG skyrocket from last season. He is also a negative regression candidate, with an xERA (4.47) over 1.5 runs higher than actual (2.90).
Miley doesn’t walk many batters and ranks in the bottom 6% in both whiff and strikeout rate. So the ball will be put into play. With Alonso putting in good at-bats, it’s only a matter of time before the success follows suit.
I’m putting .5u on Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+135) and .1u on HR (+390) both at bet365.
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
Guardians vs. Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Austin Cox (LHP)
Jose Ramirez has been tearing the leather off the ball after a slow — for his standards — start to the season. In June, the switch hitting superstar is hitting .330 with six home runs and a 40% extra-base hit rate
The Royals are turning to southpaw Austin Cox to start on Wednesday. He has thrown 12 1/3 scoreless innings out of the bullpen for Kansas City thus far, but there are some concerns that play into this handicap of Ramirez.
This year in the minors, Cox gave up a 2.34 HR/9. The season before: 1.22. His xFIP over the last two years in Triple-A sat in the low-to-mid 5s and in the majors, yet that hasn’t come to bite him in the majors yet. He has an 8.0 barrel% and a 44.0 hard-hit rate yet has only given up two big-league hits.
Ramirez has seen his wOBA, ISO and hard-hit rate take a huge turn for the better in the month of June. While he struggles against left-handed pitching, he does have 12 extra base hits (four home runs), or a 67% extra-base hit rate.
Cox could very well just be used as an opener and we only see him once before Kansas City turns it over to the bullpen. Against righties, Ramirez has a slash line of .338/.412/.557.
In an expected high-scoring game, I love the idea of backing Ramirez against the rookie/Royals bullpen combo. The wind is blowing out 8 miles per hour to left center, leading toward a 5.9% expected increase in home runs and 5.6% increase in slugging.
I’m throwing to win .5u on over 1.5 total bases (-120) at bet365 and .1u on HR (+420) at FanDuel.
Pick: Ramirez to HR |
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Wednesday, June 28
- Jake Fraley (+750)
- Pete Alonso (+390)
- Jose Ramirez (+420)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at bet365 comes in at $1,793.20.
