Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remain a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not plus-money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +18213 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Josh Jung, Texas Rangers
Angels vs. Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Tyler Anderson (LHP)
A rookie sensation in the middle of Texas’ lineup, Josh Jung has quickly become a lefty killer. Among Rangers with consistent playing time, Jung is No. 1 in wRC+ (172) and isolated power (.317).
Jung’s OPS sits at .993, and 47% of his hits against left-handed pitching have gone for extra bases.
Unlike Yandy Diaz, who hits atop the lineup, Jung often finds himself in the middle. But that’s a benefit for the hard-swinging righty, who is on a dominant offensive team like Texas that is constantly threatening on the bases.
While his strikeout numbers remain above 25%, Jung has a perfect matchup on Monday night. Left-hander Tyler Anderson ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in strikeout rate — below 15% — and has seen his command dissipate from last season.
He has struggled since leaving the Dodgers, seeing his barrel rate (6.7%), xBA (.270) and xSLG (.419) skyrocket across the board. His groundball rate is a career-worst, too.
That’s not a great pairing against Jung, who has a barrel rate of 12.6% and xSLG all the way up at .527 — and that’s against both righties and lefties. Anderson’s pitch-to-contact mentality has made him a consistent fade candidate, and given his expected indicators sitting in the low-to-mid 5s, I’ll continually target the opposition in his starts.
I’m throwing .5u on over 1.5 total bases (+115) and .1u on Jung to hit a HR (+390) at bet365.
Pick: Josh Jung to Hit a HR |
Yandy Diaz, Tampa Bay Rays
Rays vs. Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: James Kaprielian (RHP)
The last week of Oakland Athletics baseball has been a thing of beauty. But it’s time to fall back down to reality against the big, bad Tampa Bay Rays.
The Rays boast one of the deadliest offenses in baseball, and Diaz has transformed himself into one of the best leadoff hitters.
His barrel rate has doubled from a season ago, and he ranks in the top 2% of all hitters in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
He’s extremely disciplined at the plate. Diaz rarely extends his zone and is content with drawing walks. And like my love for Mookie Betts in the leadoff spot, what lurks behind Diaz forces opposing pitchers to attack. And Diaz takes it in full stride.
James Kaprielian takes the mound for Oakland on Monday, and he has concerns across the board. The right-hander often finds himself trailing in counts and has a sub-20 K%, often relying on contact for his outs. Unlike JP Sears and Paul Blackburn, who are average Major League pitchers, Kaprielian doesn’t fit the bill.
While he’s limited barrels this season — career-best 6.5% — he’s seen his xBA (.262), xSLG (.450) and hard-hit rate (39.1%) all jump from a season ago. His xERA sits in the mid-5s, and he forces ground balls at a career-low 27.0% rate.
With an increase in fly balls and line drives, Diaz becomes an attractive option amid a weak eight-game Monday slate. He has a team-high 180 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, and 37% of all hits have gone for extra bases.
He’s also always a threat for a multi-hit game. In eight June games, Diaz has had two hits in half of them.
I’m backing him to rack up over 1.5 total bases (+110) for .5u at DraftKings and adding .1u on him to find the bleachers (+550) at Caesars.
Pick: Yandy Diaz to Hit a HR |
Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Tommy Henry (LHP)
Trea Turner’s slow start in Philadelphia has been put in the rearview mirror. Through 10 games in June, Turner is hitting .317 and has three doubles and a pair of home runs. And that’s come even with poor luck on his balls put into play.
Worst Luck Hitters, Last 2 Weeks
expected wOBA vs. actual wOBA1) Bobby Witt Jr.
.399 expected, .220 actual2) Bryce Harper
.402 expected, .278 actual3) Pavin Smith
.378 expected, .283 actual4) Trea Turner
.374 expected, .280 actual5) Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
.400…— Jon Anderson (@JonPgh) June 9, 2023
Turner is in the middle of turning his season around, and after a strong series against the Dodgers — 6-for-13 with a double — I’m expecting him to carry that success over into the Arizona series.
Last season against left-handed pitching, Turner saw an increase in power; he hit a home run on 20% of his total hits against southpaws. Altogether, 40% of his hits went for extra bases.
While the average hasn’t been there against lefties thus far in 2023, the power has been. Of his 18 hits, four have left the park. Another five have been doubles (.733 total OPS).
His placement toward the top of the lineup should also provide a security blanket and force the opposition to pitch to him, rather than facing Bryce Harper and the hot-swinging Nick Castellanos.
Tommy Henry takes the mound for Arizona on Monday, and while he can limit hard hits, the southpaw relies heavily on pitching to contact. He has just a 4.2 K-BB%, and with his spotty command and a near double-digit barrel rate, I’m expecting the Phillies to find success in their series opener against the Diamondbacks.
Henry’s xFIP (5.64) is over a run higher than his actual, and he’s benefited from a 78.3 LOB%. Home runs remain an issue for the lefty, who has a 44.6 FB%. That’s up over 10% from last season.
His Stuff+ is also a concern. His fastball, which he throws over half the time, has a Stuff+ rating of just 71. His changeup — the next-most thrown pitch at 22.6% — is down at 87. It’s only a matter of time before regression comes to bite Henry, and backing Turner is a great way to fade him.
Like the others, I’m throwing .5u on Turner over 1.5 total bases (+100) at DraftKings and .1u on HR (+480) at FanDuel.
Pick: Trea Turner to Hit a HR |
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Monday, June 12
- Josh Jung (+390)
- Yandy Diaz (+550)
- Trea Turner (+480)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at Bet365 comes in at $1,821.30.
