Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total.
But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant.
One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player to hit a HR, you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers.
Today's lottery ticket comes with +11733 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Christopher Morel, Chicago Cubs
White Sox vs. Cubs, 8:05 p.m. ET | Opposing Starting Pitcher: Mike Clevinger (RHP)
A player that I’m looking to buy low on is Christopher Morel.
The 24-year-old has been in a huge slump over the last few weeks, hitting just .130 with a .557 OPS. Five of his six hits have gone for extra bases, but he’s struck out 20 times in 46 at-bats.
Does Morel have a free-swinging issue at times? Most definitely. But it’s not so much chasing out of the zone (he’s actually in the 59th percentile in chase rate). Rather, he just completely misses the ball (bottom 1% in whiff rate).
When Morel makes contact, though, it’s crushed. He's in the top 10% of all hitters in both hard-hit (49.7%) and barrel rate (15.3). While he has just four home runs in the last two months, Morel has home run potential in every at-bat.
Morel is also one of Chicago’s best bats against right-handed pitching. He has a 131 wRC+ and a .245 ISO, which ranks second on the team behind Patrick Wisdom. Over the last 15 games or so, when the ball is put into play, Morel often crushes it in the air.
The increase in fly balls should lead to more success, and with the wind blowing out at 12 mph to left field on Wednesday, home runs should be at a constant. According to RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge system, based on a 148-game sample, we should see a +53.4% increase in home runs today.
Mike Clevinger takes the hill for the White Sox, and he's by no means a strikeout pitcher (19.2%). His command can become an issue at times, which leads to plenty of barrels. He's no stranger to the long ball — he's had a 1.14 HR/0 or worse in each of the last three seasons he’s pitched in — and is a huge negative regression candidate.
Clevinger’s ground-ball rate is also just 29.8%, which poses an issue given the conditions around game time tonight.
The home run props aren’t widely available right now, so be sure to shop around as lines come out. But Morel’s current best HR number is +390 at bet365.
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
Mariners vs. Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET | Opposing Starting Pitcher: James McArthur/Alec Marsh (RHP)
The Royals are opting for an opener on Wednesday, but Alec Marsh has been tabbed as the long reliever to replace James McArthur.
Given the conditions around game time, this is another great spot to target home run props.
With wind blowing out 11 mph to left center, RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge projects a +26.8% increase in home runs. It’ll be around 82 degrees, which is a perfect situation for hitters.
And given Marsh’s struggles on the mound, targeting the Mariners is first and foremost.
Marsh is about league average in strikeout rate and does have a high chase rate. But he also ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in walk rate and xSLG. Marsh’s ground-ball rate is just 30.9% and his barrel rate is 10.5%.
Given his erratic nature on the mound and being prone to the long ball — 2.73 HR/9, at least one in 6-of-8 games this year — I’m targeting the "Big Dumper" himself, Cal Raleigh.
Raleigh has always been a free-swinging catcher, and his barrel rate of 12.9% is well above-average. His 113 wRC+ and .230 ISO is among the best on the Mariners against right-handed pitching, too.
The switch-hitting Raleigh is at his best against righties. He has 18 of his 20 home runs against righties and has posted another cool stat: 26.4% of all his hits against right-handed pitching have left the park.
Raleigh is a great power bat in the middle of Seattle’s lineup, and like the others on this list, he's a buy-low candidate. He has just a .143 average over the last 15 days — four home runs and 20 strikeouts in 49 at-bats — but has seen both his fly-ball rate and hard-hit rate slowly rise in that span.
Raleigh hit home runs in back-to-back games just a week ago, and I’m expecting his bat to get going here, especially given the conditions around game time in a plus matchup against Marsh.
He's +360 to hit a HR at bet365.
Juan Soto, San Diego Padres
Orioles vs. Padres, 8:40 p.m. ET | Opposing Starting Pitcher: Dean Kremer (RHP)
Dean Kremer continues to evade negative regression in the second half of the season, despite constant base runners and hard-hit balls in play.
His home park allowed for Jeremy Pena’s fly out — a home run in 25 of 30 stadiums — and Adam Frazier made a game-changing stop at second on Yordan Alvarez’s .700 xBA rocket in the fifth inning of his last start.
I’ll be looking to fade Kremer in the player prop market on Wednesday given his issues with limiting hard hits. Kremer ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in average exit velocity, xBA and xSLG. He rarely generates any chases, and his barrel rate has once again crept into double digits.
Kremer has plus command — his walk rate is just 7.3%, 62nd percentile — but when he falls behind the opposition, he often grooves his pitches in the zone.
Kremer’s ground-ball rate continues to dip and his HR/9 sits at 1.7, making him a perfect fade candidate against the Padres' offense.
While Juan Soto has struggled over the last 15 days — a .208 average and an uncanny 12 strikeouts in 53 at-bats — he does have four home runs.
When looking deeper at his struggles, you’ll see Soto’s slow rise in hard-hit rate in that span.
He’s still crushing the ball; it just hasn’t come with much success. I expect that to change here in a plus matchup against Kremer. Soto is by far the best Padre against right-handed pitching (162 wRC+), and he has a .273 ISO.
Back him to hit a HR at +425 at bet365.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Wednesday, August 16
- Christopher Morel +390
- Cal Raleigh +360
- Juan Soto +425
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay featuring these three home run props at bet365 comes in at $1,173.30.
