Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remain a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not plus-money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +23000 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Justin Turner, Boston Red Sox
Rockies vs. Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Austin Gomber (LHP)
Behind only Corbin Carroll’s tear this last week, Justin Turner sits among the hottest hitters in baseball.
In each of the last five games, Turner has finished with over 1.5 bases. He’s had a multi-hit performance in four of those and found the bleacher creatures in the Bronx on Sunday Night Baseball.
I expect the tear to continue in a dream matchup on Wednesday night. The Rockies will start Austin Gomber, who may very well be the worst pitcher in MLB. He carries a 7.62 xERA and has given up 10 home runs in his last six starts.
Gomber struggles across the board. He’s in the bottom 3% of all pitchers in xBA (.323) and xSLG (.582). That’s a concern when the southpaw can’t generate chases or swings and misses — bottom 10% of all pitchers — and relies on pitching to contact.
Among those with consistent at-bats, Turner is the best Red Sox hitter against left-handed pitching. He has a 168 wRC+ and a .275 ISO. Of his 21 hits, 11 have gone for extra bases, and four have found the outfield seats.
In general, Turner is an incredibly hard out. He doesn’t chase out of the zone and rarely strikes out. He ranks in the upper third of hitters in xSLG and carries a .269 xBA — his best mark since the 2020 COVID-19 year.
Tack on that Gomber, a borderline Triple-A pitcher, takes the mound on Wednesday night, and I love Turner to have a strong performance in the three-hole of the Red Sox lineup.
As always, I’m throwing .5u on him over 1.5 total bases (-110) and .1u to hit a HR (+560) at FanDuel.
Pick: Justin Turner to Hit a HR (+560) |
Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez (LHP)
The Diamondbacks have been on a tear of late, and against left-handed pitching Christian Walker is often at the forefront of the damage being done.
Walker carries a 150 wRC+ and an incredible .333 ISO against lefties this season, and that comes despite a .250 BABIP. That number should rise in the coming at-bats for a hitter who already has a .959 OPS.
Of Walker’s 17 hits against southpaws, 35% have left the park. Another three have ended in doubles.
Ranger Suarez struggled his last time against the Diamondbacks, giving up five runs across five innings. He has thrown 13 innings of two-run ball in his last two starts, but I wouldn’t be too keen on him sustaining that production.
The southpaw’s xERA remains at 4.50, and he’s in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in xBA. He doesn’t generate many swings and misses, and his average exit velocity (90 mph) remains a cause for concern. His numbers have taken a step back across the board.
Meanwhile, Walker’s wOBA has taken a steady rise since June began, with seven doubles and a .925 OPS. It’s only a matter of time before the home runs follow suit for the power-hitting righty.
I’m placing .5u on Walker over 1.5 total bases (+125) at bet365 and .1u on a HR (+600) at FanDuel.
Pick: Christian Walker to Hit a HR (+600) |
Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers
White Sox vs. Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Mike Clevinger (RHP)
For the first time in over a week, Freddie Freeman went hitless on Tuesday. For one of the best pure hitters in all of baseball, I’m expecting that to not repeat against Mike Clevinger tonight.
Let’s put things in perspective. Freeman has gone hitless just four times since May. In the game immediately after, Freeman has hit a double or home run three times.
In general, he ranks in the top 1% of all hitters in xBA and xSLG. He’s in the top 25% of all hitters in barrel rate, K% and average exit velocity, too.
Clevinger takes the mound for the White Sox, and he’s struggled once again out of the gate. His xERA sits at 4.75, and his barrel rate remains near double digits. The right-hander has struggled to generate chases and swings and misses, and he ranks in the bottom half of all pitchers in xBA, xSLG, BB% and more.
To put it simply, it’s a great matchup for Freeman. He carries a 152 wRC+, second-best on the Dodgers, and a .936 OPS. While he has hit only four home runs, 36% of all hits have gone for extra bases.
The benefit of batting second — sandwiched between Mookie Betts and Will Smith — is also a huge plus for Freeman. He not only will see four or five at-bats a game, but he's not often pitched around. With great plate discipline and a great matchup, expect a bounce-back.
I’m putting .5u on Freeman to get over 1.5 total bases (+100) at DraftKings and .1u on a HR (+425) at bet365.
Pick: Freddie Freeman to Hit a HR (+425) |
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Wednesday, June 14
- Justin Turner (+560)
- Christian Walker (+600)
- Freddie Freeman (+425)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $2,300
