Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home runprops can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +18918 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals vs. Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Tylor Megill (RHP)
A surprise storyline that has developed through the opening half of the season has been Paul Goldschmidt’s domination against right-handed pitching, and his drop in power against lefties.
Luckily for him, he faces a righty in Tylor Megill on Friday night. Goldschmidt has a team-best 151 wRC+ and his .227 ISO ranks second. His OPS sits around .908 and 43% of his hits have gone for extra bases against righties; 18% have left the park.
Among all batters, Goldschmidt ranks in the top 5% of all hitters in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. His barrel rate is a career-best 13.9%.
Megill has a lot of concerns. He has regressed hard after last season and has seen his strikeout rate drop nearly 10%. He now ranks in the bottom 5% of all pitchers in chase rate.
With spotty command, he is forced to attack the zone or walk the opposition. The end result has been the right-hander being crushed. He has posted a career-worst .286 xBA and .468 xSLG, both in the bottom 20% of all pitchers, and has a 5.85 xERA.
While Megill does limit barrels — he’s about league average — 36% of all hits have gone for extra bases and 15% have left the park. Given Goldschmidt’s spot atop the lineup in a game that projects toward the over, I love targeting the slugging righty here.
I’m throwing .5u on Goldschmidt over 1.5 total bases (+110) at DraftKings and .1u on him to hit a HR (+390) at Bet365.
William Contreras, Milwaukee Brewers
Pirates vs. Brewers, 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Rich Hill (LHP)
Rich Hill continues to defy expectations, but the concerns are there and large enough for me to fade the left-hander from a prop perspective every game.
The left-hander ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in xBA, xSLG and barrel rate. He doesn’t generate many swings and misses or chases, as his xERA sits toward 5.5. Negative regression is due for Dick Mountain, though he’s turned in back-to-back quality starts in the process.
The positive is that Hill doesn’t walk many batters. He often attacks the zone with two pitches of drastically different speeds — 87.9 mph fastball and 71.5 mph curveball — hoping to catch the opposition off their timing.
But the curveball often loops in and is often crushed if sat on (.496 xSLG). Of the hits given up by Hill, 46% have gone for extra bases and 14.5% have left the park. He has given up a home run in each of his last three starts.
Enter William Contreras, arguably the most consistent bat in the Brewers lineup, especially against southpaws. The catcher has a .262 ISO against left-handed pitching and a 144 wRC+.
With an OPS of .900, half of Contreras’ hits against lefties have gone for extra bases. Four of his 16 have left the park. Overall, his barrel rate remains in the double digits and he’s in the top 15% of all hitters in hard-hit rate (career-best 49%).
I’m backing the catcher to rack up over 1.5 total bases (+140) at .5u and to hit a HR (+475) at .1u, both found at Bet365.
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
Angels vs. Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Patrick Sandoval (LHP)
Bobby Witt Jr. is on a tear right now and I’m going to continue backing the shortstop against left-handed pitching.
Since the calendar turned June, Witt has a .319 average and a .764 OPS. But where his damage often comes from is against southpaws. There’s a noticeable difference in his splits, as Witt sits up at .290 with an .885 OPS against lefties. He’s hit six home runs on 20 hits.
Among those with consistent at-bats, Witt is the No. 1 Royal in wRC+ and ISO against lefties. On Friday night he draws Patrick Sandoval, who has struggled mightily in the last month. In his last two starts, Sandoval has thrown 8 1/3 innings of 11-run ball with 18 hits and three walks.
His xBA sits in the bottom 20% of pitchers and his strikeout rate has dropped nearly 7% from last season. He’s been using his sinker more compared to last season, but the arsenal has largely remained the same.
Witt is a multi-hit threat each night, and against the Reds this past series he was moved to the three hole or cleanup spot in higher-leverage situations. He finished the series 4-for-11 with three walks and a home run.
Witt ranks in the top 10% of all hitters in xSLG and max exit velocity. He’s among the fastest players on the diamond and can easily turn a single into a double — or a slow dribbler into an infield hit. He also doesn’t walk often, which is a plus when betting total bases props.
I’m backing Witt for .5u to get over 1.5 total bases (+100) at DraftKings and .1u to hit a HR (+575) at Bet365.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Day, Date
- Paul Goldschmidt (+390)
- William Contreras (+475)
- Bobby Witt Jr (+575)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at Bet365 comes in at $1,891.80
