Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason. But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +15482 odds.
Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers
Cubs vs. Tigers, 6:40 p.m. ET | Opposing starter: Javier Assad (RHP)
The Detroit Tigers' offense has flown under the radar over the last month. Players like Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter are finding their groove and growing comfortable in the bigs.
But I’m heading to Riley Greene on Monday night, who has dominated in his second season. The lefty is hitting .303 and ranks among the top 11% of all hitters in xSLG, xBA, xwOBA and average exit velocity.
His barrel rate has jumped 2.5% from his rookie season (now 11.8) and his hard-hit rate is just shy of 50%.
While Torkelson and Carpenter have been making headlines for their home run hitting, I think there’s a lot of value on Greene in a plus matchup against Javier Assad. The wind is blowing 10 mph out to right field at Comerica and Greene’s OPS jumps significantly against right-handed pitching (.879).
In fact, all 11 home runs have come against righties for Greene. Over the last month, his barrel rate has jumped above 15% and he’s been lifting the ball in the air more. While Assad is a ground-ball pitcher, he has given up more hard hits — and balls in the air — over the last few starts since joining the Chicago rotation.
Assad doesn’t strike out many batters because he doesn’t generate many chases out of the zone. Rather he relies on inducing soft contact and limit barrels — which he’s about league average in — for success.
Given the plus split and wind blowing out to right, I like taking a longer shot on Greene as opposed to Torkelson tonight. He is +600 at FanDuel to find the bleachers.
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
Red Sox vs. Astros, 8:10 p.m. ET | Opposing starter: James Paxton (LHP)
It’s been an injury-riddled season for Jose Altuve. He has landed on the injured list twice and has played just 54 games.
But he draws a great matchup on Monday night against a familiar foe in James Paxton. Altuve hasn’t crushed southpaws quite like he has in the past, but his wRC+ (146) remains impressive. His ISO is .211, too, as 44% of his hits against left-handed pitching have gone for extra bases.
Over the last month, Altuve has seen a spike in both his hard-hit rate and wOBA. He has been hitting as well as anybody at the plate, with a .414 average and 1.088 OPS in that span.
Altuve is the perfect player to back against a lefty in both the HR and total bases department. He has a long-standing history of seeing southpaws well and despite not a ton of pop — 7.7 barrel% — he is extremely productive within his at-bats.
Given his recent stretch at the plate, he is becoming one of the hardest Astros to get out. He should continue his success now that he’s fully healthy and is seeing consistent at-bats.
While I don’t take prior history much into consideration, Altuve has seen Paxton 40 times and has gotten the best of the lefty, hitting .324 with a pair of home runs.
In general, Paxton has been a solid pitcher after rehabbing back from injury for multiple years. But he does remain a below-average pitcher in the barrels department (8.5%) and has given up five home runs in his last three starts.
Fatigue may be catching up to the left-hander who has made six starts prior to this season since the end of 2019.
Altuve is +430 to hit a HR at FanDuel and I would consider his total bases or runs scored props, too. He should be on base plenty Monday night.
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers
Rangers vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET | Opposing starter: Slade Cecconi (RHP)
If you want to talk about one of the most impressive leaps in major league baseball this season, look no further than Corey Seager.
The lefty has battled injury and missed a full month to begin the season, yet his numbers are eye-popping. Seager is hitting .346 with 23 home runs and a career-high 1.072 OPS in 81 games.
And his advanced metrics are even more impressive. He’s in the 99th percentile or better among all hitters in average exit velocity, barrel rate, xBA, xSLG and hard-hit rate. Somehow, over the last season, his barrel rate has jumped nearly double digits (19.5%) and his hard-hit rate is 57.1%.
Seager has yet to slow down and hasn’t shown any signs of doing so. It doesn’t matter if he faces a lefty or righty, he is split-proof.
Slade Cecconi gets the start for Arizona on Monday and the righty has just 10 1/3 big league innings under his belt. But based on his minor league numbers, Cecconi has had some home run woes — 1.53 HR/9 in Double-A, 2.01 in Triple-A — over a combined 230 innings.
There are few hitters as dominant as Seager is right now and in a plus matchup against a rookie who has experienced issues with the long ball in the minors, I’m going to pull the trigger. His best number is +320, available at FanDuel.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Monday, August 21
- Riley Greene (+600)
- Jose Altuve (+430)
- Corey Seager (+320)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,548.20.
