Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly and you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +11200 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox
Tigers vs. White Sox | Opposing starting pitcher: Eduardo Rodrigeuz
The season Luis Robert has put together has been lost because of the White Sox’s struggles. But the 26-year-old slugger has turned himself into one of the best pure power hitters in MLB.
Chicago welcomes in Detroit for an AL Central bout on Friday night and left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez gets the nod for the Tigers. This is a great matchup for Robert who has an incredible 173 wRC+ and .297 ISO against southpaws.
In his 101 at-bats, Robert has seven home runs and a 48.4% extra base hit rate. After last season where Robert’s barrel rate dropped below double digits and his power struggled because of it, he has made a complete 180.
Robert ranks in the 94th percentile of all hitters in both barrel rate and xSLG and has a sweet-spot% of 38.1. Take a look at his rolling hard-hit and fly ball graph, too. Robert has been crushing the ball of late:
While Rodriguez ranks slightly above average in barrel rate (7.3%), this is still a great matchup for Robert. The southpaw has struggled a bit in August, throwing 16 1/3 innings of 11-run ball (3 HRs) over his last three starts.
Robert is +425 to hit a HR tonight.
Vlad Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays vs. Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET | Opposing starting pitcher: Chris Flexen
When you look at Vlad Guerrero’s underlying metrics, you’d be surprised to see that he only has 20 home runs this season.
The Blue Jays slugger ranks inside the top 10% of all hitters in hard-hit rate, xSLG and xBA. His fly ball and barrel rate even slightly increased from last season (32 HRs) yet the success hasn’t followed suit.
Friday night presents a great opportunity at the hitters-friendly Coors Field. Chris Flexen takes the mound for Colorado and the right-hander has struggled once again this season. In six starts since joining the Rockies, Flexen has given up eight home runs.
Flexen ranks below average across the board in every metric and enters with a 2.35 HR/9 rate. While that seems unsustainable, he is pitching in Coors often — where balls fly — and has an ineffective low 90s fastball.
The wind is blowing at near 10 mph winds to dead center in the dead heat of Colorado, which RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge projects an +11.6% boost in home runs.
Guerrero’s rolling hard-hit and fly ball graphs have trended upward in the last 20 games which gives me even more confidence in the slugger finding the outfield seats on Friday night in an extremely hitter-friendly environment.
Guerrero is +310 at FanDuel.
Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
Orioles vs. Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET | Opposing starting pitcher: Cole Irvin
Christian Walker is among the buy low candidates that has a great matchup on Friday night.
The slugging first baseman is hitting just .217 with a .570 OPS over the last two weeks and is on the longest home run drought of 2023 (now at 13 games). But this is a great opportunity to bounce back against lefty Cole Irvin.
For starters, Walker has crushed southpaws. He has a 56.7% extra base hit rate and a .958 OPS. Nearly 37% of all hits against lefties have found the outfield seats, too.
That plays perfectly into the fade of Irvin. While the lefty has been extremely solid in August — 20 innings, five runs — he remains in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in xERA (5.84) and xBA (.283). Even more important is his career-worst 10.5 barrel%.
Opponents are able to consistently put the barrel on the ball against Irvin, the success just hasn’t followed. His HR/9 is a career-best 1.13 despite the jump in both xSLG and barrel rate when compared to the last couple of seasons.
Walker has a .339 ISO against left-handed pitching this season, by far the best on the Diamondbacks and even better than the aforementioned Robert. His wRC+ is also an impressive 151.
Back Walker to snap his homerless drought against Irvin. Best number is +425 at FanDuel.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Friday, September 1st
- Luis Robert (+425)
- Vlad Guerrero Jr. (+310)
- Christian Walker (+425)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,120.
