Baseball betting is one of a kind. Diving into a full slate each day is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runs props.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there are always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not plus-money and home run props can often reach the 600-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +20743 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
Royals vs. Orioles, 7:05 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Daniel Lynch (LHP)
The Orioles have long been a notable lefty-mashing offense. But one player in particular sticks out as a specialist in these circumstances: Ryan Mountcastle.
Mountcastle really struggles against righties, but he has a .311 average with seven home runs and six doubles against lefties this season. Nearly 57% of all hits have gone for extra bases against southpaws, as Mountcastle has a dominant 171 wRC+.
This is a great buy-low opportunity on Mountcastle. He hasn’t hit a home run since May 24 against the Yankees and is in the midst of a 4-for-30 slump. But the majority of those games came against righties, where he’s hitting .190.
Daniel Lynch takes the mound for Kansas City, and while he hasn’t given up a barrel in his two starts this season, I don’t expect that to stay for long. Lynch had an 8.8 barrel% last season and 10.4 the year prior.
Lynch is a very hittable lefty and there hasn’t been a huge change in his arsenal. He remains mainly a three-pitch pitcher — he’s using his changeup a bit more — and has seen a velocity dip for his fastball (.322 xBA).
Despite Lynch’s early-season success with his off-speed, none of his five pitches have a Stuff+ rating above 100. Each ranks in the low-to-mid 80s aside from his slider (97).
I’m throwing .5u on Mountcastle over 1.5 total bases (+110) and .1u on him to find the outfield seats (+525) at bet365.
Tommy Pham, New York Mets
Mets vs. Pirates, 7:05 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Rich Hill (LHP)
The issue with the Mets is not a lack of offensive production. They put up 10 runs against the Braves yesterday — including eight earned on NL Cy Young favorite Spencer Strider — and have a great matchup against Rich Hill on Friday.
Hill has above-average command but remains in the bottom 16% of all pitchers in both whiff and chase rate. His xBA is a career-worst .281 and his xSLG has neared .500 for the first time in his career. Even his barrel rate (11.1%) has jumped into double digits.
Yet he’s been able to mitigate damage thus far. His xERA is over a run higher than actual and the 43-year-old should negatively regress as the season progresses.
That’s why I’m targeting Tommy Pham here. He is among the best Mets hitters against southpaws, with a 133 wRC+ and .271 ISO. The outfielder has a home run against Hill in his career and 33% of all hits against lefties have left the park in 2023.
Even with his average numbers against right-handed pitching, Pham has an impressive 15.6 barrel%, .282 xBA and a 50% hard-hit rate. He should see a rise in the lineup against a southpaw, especially if Pete Alonso misses another game.
I’m putting .5u on over 1.5 total bases (+155) and .1u on Pham to hit a HR (+680), both at FanDuel.
Pick: Tommy Pham to Hit a HR |
Gary Sanchez, San Diego Padres
Padres vs. Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Austin Gomber (LHP)
The year is 2023 and somehow, some way we are witnessing the Gary Sanchez revival.
Since he’s joined San Diego, Sanchez has a hit in seven of nine games, and he's gone over 1.5 total bases in five of those. He enters with a pair of both home runs and doubles in the last three games and has a great matchup against Austin Gomber on Friday night.
Obviously, it’s been a limited sample size, but Sanchez is 3-for-10 with two home runs against left-handed pitching. He has yet to strike out. He has extra-base power every at-bat with a 16.7 barrel% and .544 xSLG this season.
As for Gomber, he is one of the worst pitchers in baseball. His xERA is up at 7.24 and his xBA (.315) and xSLG (.566) are in the bottom 3% of all pitchers. His strikeout rate has dipped for the third straight season while his walk rate has jumped to 9.9%. All in all, he’s struggled mightily.
Gomber has given up 13 home runs this season, including six over his last five starts. He has trouble limiting base runners, which should help Sanchez behind a dominant Padres 1-4.
While most Padres hitters have juiced odds, I find Sanchez extremely undervalued here. I’m throwing .5u on him over 1.5 total bases (+100) at BetMGM and .1u on HR (+360) at FanDuel.
Pick: Gary Sanchez to Hit a HR |
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Day, Date
- Ryan Mountcastle (+525)
- Tommy Pham (+680)
- Gary Sanchez (+360)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at bet365 comes in at $2,074
