Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runsprops.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +12860 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Spencer Steer, Cincinnati Reds
Reds vs. Orioles, 7:05 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Cole Irvin (LHP)
The Cincinnati Reds' offense continues to hum despite their 12-game win streak coming to a close. One of those players that has been a critical bat in the middle of the lineup has been Spencer Steer.
Steer is as consistent as it gets and he’s been a bit unlucky in recent weeks. There are few Reds hitting the ball as hard as Steer, the success just hasn’t come. In the last 15 days, Steer is hitting just .213 with a .774 OPS. But take a look at his rolling hard-hit rate graph and it tells you a different story:
It’s only a matter of time before those hard-hit balls find gaps or the outfield seats. Steer has been a strong bat against both lefties and righties — sits in .270s in average, mid-800s in OPS — but is best against left-handed pitching.
Steer has a .270 IS and 124 wRC+ against southpaws. His power is among the best on the Reds; 25% of his hits have left the park while another 20% have gone for extra bases. In an expected high-scoring game, I love targeting Steer here against Orioles lefty Cole Irvin.
Irvin has struggled mightily this season. He ranks in the bottom 2% of all pitchers in xBA, xSLG and barrel%. His xERA is up at 8.98 — yes, nearly a run per inning — and his command has been notably spotty. It’s up nearly double from a season ago.
Irvin has a deep arsenal, no pitch has been particularly effective. His sinker has been most reliable in both generating whiffs and outs, but even then it’s overperformed expectations (.200 average vs. .282 xBA &.267 SLG vs. .548 xSLG).
I’m throwing .5u on Steer to go over 1.5 total bases (-105) at DraftKings and .1u on him to hit a HR (+500) at FanDuel.
Josh Jung, Texas Rangers
Tigers vs. Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd (LHP)
It’s been a quiet month for Josh Jung. After a blazing start to the season, the righty has hit just .224 with three home runs in June. The biggest difference has been an uptick in strikeouts — 12 in the last five games — with just three hits (one double).
But I think this is a great buy-low opportunity on the slugger. If there’s a time when you want to back Jung, it’s against a left-handed pitcher. He has a 180 wRC+ and a .319 ISO — that ranks first on the team among those with consistent at-bats.
The splits are drastically different, too. His average jumps nearly 80 points (.333 vs. .255) and his OPS sits at an impressive 1.021. A quarter of his hits against southpaws have left the park and 46% total have gone for extra bases.
He draws a matchup with left-hander Matthew Boyd, a player I’m actually relatively high on. His whiff and chase rates rank among the top 20% of all pitchers and he is able to limit hard hits. But when they are barreled, the ball often leaves the park. Boyd has given up 10 home runs in 14 starts, including three over his last three.
While Jung has struggled of late, when he does put the ball in play, it’s often hit hard. Given the plus matchup against a lefty tonight, I’m going to buy into the third baseman on Monday.
I’m putting .5u on over 1.5 total bases (+115) at DraftKings and .1u on HR (+440) at Caesars.
Teoscar Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
Nationals vs. Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing starting pitcher: Trevor Williams (RHP)
Trevor Williams turned in the best start of his season against the Cardinals last week, but I’m back on board with fading the right-hander. Prior to last week, Williams had given up a home run in six straight games and he ranks in the bottom 11% of all pitchers in both xSLG and barrel%.
Enter Teoscar Hernandez. Brought over in the offseason, Hernandez was expected to provide huge power in the middle of the lineup. It was a very slow start to the season for the righty, but he has begun to turn a corner in June.
In 76 at-bats, Hernandez is hitting .316 with five home runs. His strikeout rate remains high, but Hernandez is barreling balls more consistently and finding a lot more success at the plate.
His numbers across the board have shown promise. His rolling wOBA, ISO and hard-hit% graphs have all taken a drastic step forward in the last couple of weeks. While he is better against left-handed pitching, he is also the best Mariners bat from a power standpoint.
Hernandez ranks inside the top 16% of all hitters in max exit velocity, hard-hit%, barrel rate and xSLG. He’s above average in xBA, too. It’s a great matchup for Hernandez as Williams rarely generates whiffs and his strikeout rate is sub-18%.
I’m backing Hernandez to go over 1.5 total bases (+110) at .5u and to hit a HR (+420) at .1u, both at FanDuel.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Day, Date
- Spencer Steer (+500)
- Josh Jung (+440)
- Teoscar Hernandez (+420)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at Bet365 comes in at $1,286.
