It's a busy Tuesday in Major League Baseball, which means I'm all over the MLB home run props market in search of value HR picks.
I'm on four players to go deep tonight. I like three sluggers involved in the Yankees-Orioles game (Adley Rutschman, Trent Grisham, Ryan Mountcastle) and one in Royals-Rays (Bobby Witt Jr.)
Continue below for my four MLB home run prop bets and parlay picks for Tuesday, April 29.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds Today — 4/26
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:35 p.m. | |
| 6:35 p.m. | |
| 6:35 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for April 29
Adley Rutschman Home Run (+850)
vs. Yankees (SP: LHP Carlos Rodon)
This is probably my favorite bet of the day.
Adley Rutschman isn't the best power bat in the league, but he's above average and in a great spot today.
Yankees starter Carlos Rodon has been prone to right-handed power bats since coming over to the Yankees, and the weather should be great in Baltimore, with temperatures in the 80s and wind blowing out at 12 mph.
Rutschman should be priced around +500, making this an absolutely massive EV bet.
Trent Grisham Home Run (+600)
at Orioles (SP: RHP Kyle Gibson)
I have no idea why the books are pricing Trent Grisham like this — he's in a great spot and he has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball this season.
Grisham already has seven homers entering Tuesday and Camden Yards is plus ballpark for lefty power.
The matchup against Orioles starter Kyle Gibson is a good one; he's been a plus matchup for lefty power over the last few years.
I have the true odds here around +400, making this a great bet.
Ryan Mountcastle Home Run (+630)
vs. Yankees (SP: LHP Carlos Rodon)
Ryan Mountcastle has been off to a rough start to the season, but his underlying barrel and hard-hit numbers have been some of the best of his career — he's due for some positive regression. The spot tonight against Rodon is also a good one.
I have the true odds here around +450, making this a great bet.
Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run (+425)
at Rays (SP: RHP Taj Bradley)
Bobby Witt Jr. is in a great spot, and the odds don't reflect it.
The ballpark upgrade to George M. Steinbrenner Field is big, and temperatures should be in the 80s during game time.
Rays starter Taj Bradley has been an absolute gas can for righty power in his career; he's given up 2.17 HR/9 to go along with heavy fly-ball and hard-hit numbers.
I have the true odds here around 100 points lower.
