Last season, I provided a breakdown for the MLB MVP and Cy Young markets, looking at historical award winners to spot trends and identify the best possible bets. The result was finding Blake Snell at +5000, which worked out pretty well for us.
Now that we have the scaffolding for MVP and Cy Young, I want to expand our reach. The Manager of the Year award is a far less glamorous award, but it’s still an award with a long history, and more importantly: It’s one we can bet on! So let’s look through the history of the award and see what it can tell us when looking at the 2024 candidates.
Here’s a chart with the award’s history since 2012, with some factors I landed on highlighting:
I originally collected this data back to 2001, but I noticed an interesting trend. Before the expansion of the postseason, it was far more prevalent for managers of non-playoff teams to win this award. From 2001-2011, five of 22 winners came from non-playoff teams, with two of those winners coming from teams with losing records.
But it appears with the move to a bigger postseason, voters have now decided a manager has to make the playoffs to win this award. It makes sense. Now that so many teams make it, it’s almost like: If you can’t get your team to the postseason in this environment, what are you even doing? Coincidentally, it took the expansion to make that clear, but all 24 winners since 2012 have made the postseason, so I’m comfortable calling that a prerequisite in the modern era.
The second prerequisite is to top your preseason Vegas win total. Once again, we are 24 for 24 in the modern era, with managers topping their preseason win total by an average of 14.7 wins, based on data from Sports Odds History. This pattern has held up even back through 2001, though, with a few managers just sneaking over that number (Dave Roberts in 2016 and Mike Schildt in 2019 as notable examples).
The next three factors are near requisites. First, an improvement in win total over the previous season. While teams have actually averaged improving by more wins (16.7) than they beat their preseason win total by, there have been a few exceptions. Dave Roberts in 2016 once again says hello, and while Kevin Cash technically won more games in 2021 than 2020, if we prorate that 2020 COVID season out, the Rays had a higher winning percentage in 2020 than 2021. But for the most part, a big jump in wins is a key factor.
So far, everything we have noted seems pretty obvious: Manage a team that wins enough to make the postseason while also coming from a lower point of expectation.
The two furthest right columns, however, are most interesting. That word “expectation” proves to be quite operative. Because while bigger markets might dominate the flashier awards, Manager of the Year is for the little fish. Half of the 24 winners since 2012 have come from small-market teams, and the average payroll rank for a winner of this award since 2012 is 19th. Now, that market definition was a little bit subjective, but that’s the point. This award is subjective and seems to really love rewarding a small market, small payroll team.
Think about this: The Yankees last had a manager with the award in 1998. The Tampa Bay Rays only came into existence that same season; they’ve had four winners of this award. Oh, but that’s just the Rays and their strong front office. The Arizona Diamondbacks have had three winners of their own. The Guardians, a notoriously small market, tight budget team have four winners of this award since 2001.
Part of it could be that iron sharpens iron, and these smaller market teams need the best managers in order to win. But a very large part, as it relates to this award, seems to be that the voters love rewarding the tuna succeeding in the same ocean as the great white sharks.
Since 2001 (the trend even dates back to that era), the manager of a team with a bottom-10 payroll has won the award exactly half the time. Managers of top-10 payrolls teams? Just eight times. When you consider that payroll is correlated with winning, this pattern becomes even more notable.
That leaves us with a pretty clear criteria. Look for a team that you think will out-win their last season as well as preseason win total and make the playoffs. But that’s all obvious and potentially baked into the market. The hidden trick: Find the small-market teams among that list. As such, let’s sort the 30 candidates into buckets and see where we land.
MLB Manager of the Year Odds, Predictions
| AL Manager | Odds | NL Manager | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Hinch, Tigers | +550 | Craig Counsell, Cubs | +600 |
| Matt Quatraro, Royals | +700 | David Bell, Reds | +800 |
| Stephen Vogt, Guardians | +1000 | Oliver Marmol, Cardinals | +800 |
| Scott Servais, Mariners | +1000 | Dave Roberts, Dodgers | +850 |
| Brandon Hyde, Orioles | +1000 | Rob Thomson, Phillies | +900 |
| Kevin Cash, Rays | +1100 | Brian Snitker, Braves | +1000 |
| Joe Espada, Astros | +1100 | Pat Murphy, Brewers | +1200 |
| Alex Cora, Red Sox | +1200 | Derek Shelton, Pirates | +1200 |
| Aaron Boone, Yankees | +1200 | Carlos Mendoza, Mets | +1200 |
| John Schneider, Blue Jays | +1200 | Torey Lovullo, Diamondbacks | +1200 |
| Rocco Baldelli, Twins | +1200 | Bob Melvin, Giants | +1200 |
| Bruce Bochy, Rangers | +1200 | Mike Shildt, Padres | +1300 |
| Ron Washington, Angels | +1300 | Skip Schumaker, Marlins | +1600 |
| Pedro Grifol, White Sox | +3000 | Dave Martinez, Nationals | +4000 |
| Mark Kotsay, Athletics | +4000 | Bud Black, Rockies | +4000 |
Odds via BetMGM and as of Monday, March 11. Check out the new user BetMGM bonus code offer before placing your bets on MLB Manager of the Year.
The Postseason Problem
- Washington Nationals
- Colorado Rockies
- Chicago White Sox
- Oakland Athletics,
- Los Angeles Angels
- Miami Marlins
I am embarrassed to admit that I did legitimately give Mark Kotsay at +4000 a look for the A’s. I think they could blow their win total out of the water. But this is why we dig in and see that with postseason being a must, I’m going to safely have to hold onto this $5 that I would have happily lit on fire with that bet. (If we somehow find ourselves in the one in a hundred multiverse in which the A’s do make the postseason and Kotsay wins this award, I am totally still taking a victory lap, though.)
The Angels and Marlins are both notably better than the other teams in this tier by most projections (for what it’s worth, I have the A’s and Angels very close in my own projections), but I am fine sitting out both especially because there are other factors supporting sitting them out. For L.A., it’s that they are a big market, and for Miami, it’s that Schumaker won last season, and although his neighbor Kevin Cash did it somewhat recently, it’s still pretty rare to pull off.
The Payroll/Market Problem
- New York Yankees
- New York Mets
- Houston Astros
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Boston Red Sox
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Atlanta Braves
- Toronto Blue Jays
- San Francisco Giants
- Texas Rangers
Let’s spend a little time here because this eliminates some big names. For me, the toughest name to cross off was John Schneider. He’s sitting in the +1200 tier with a lot of other names, and the Blue Jays have a great ceiling. But I’m going to trust the historical process here that says while it is obviously possible (Dave Roberts won with the biggest payroll in 2016. Man, he was a weird winner that year, huh?), it’s not where I’m going to go.
Similar deal for Mendoza and Boone in New York, as well as Snitker in Atlanta.
The Central Faves
- Chicago Cubs
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Cincinnati Reds
- Detroit Tigers
- Kansas City Royals
Lumping these divisional turds all together. In both leagues, the Central looks imminently attackable for a random team to come out of nowhere and win 83 games and technically make the playoffs and stay alive by our formulations here.
Thankfully for us, the books are aware of this, as they really think the winners will be coming out of the Centrals. In fact, the FIVE shortest odds to win this award all hail from the Central and are listed above.
And again, it makes sense. These are the divisions with the highest ease of access to the postseason combined with coming from low expectations (last year’s actual division winners are lower in the odds), and typically smaller markets — it all makes a perfect recipe for success in this market.
BUT, I think there are a few names I think are a little more interesting given their current odds.
Misfits
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Baltimore Orioles
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Milwaukee Brewers
These four teams have mildly intriguing options, but for various reasons I likely won’t be betting them, and certainly not doing so right now.
Rays: Three MoY awards in five years would be pretty crazy for Cash and historically unprecedented, but they are my favorite team to exceed expectations, so he shouldn’t be written off.
Orioles: It’s hard to go back-to-back but Cash showed it’s not impossible, especially with a young, small-market team that is projected to take a step back, but with a ceiling I quite like.
Pirates: If they were in any other division they’d be in the Postseason Problem tier, but I want to see them fully out of it in the NL Central before writing them off.
Brewers: The narrative is that this team is resetting, which actually works well for this award narratively. If the Brewers can win another NL Central division title (a best bet from Sean Zerillo at their current odds), he’ll at least be in the conversation. But I think I’d rather just take that bet at around +800 than have to wonder if the fact that the team won 92 games last season is going to hurt Pat Murphy when it comes to Manager of the Year.
Keep An Eye On
- Minnesota Twins
- Seattle Mariners
- Cleveland Guardians
- Arizona Diamondbacks
Ok we have a best bet coming, but this quartet is the group of teams/managers that I’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the season. I would love nothing more than one of these teams getting off to a really unlucky start that is begging for positive regression, where I can target their managers as a narrative “turned the season around” bet.
Rocco Baldelli has some of the longest odds here, but I’m not sure what the Twins ceiling really is. They have the small market and potential for postseason, but they won 87 games and the division last season, so it feels like they’d need to win 100+ to win Baldelli this award.
Scott Servais is a very interesting option, and if I could find a number around +1400, it would be under best bets. But to a degree, it’s a similar story to Minnesota. They already won 88 games last season. However, I like Seattle’s ceiling way more, but the price isn’t as good as Baldelli so it kind of evens out. Definitely a look if this team looks to be capable of reaching its ceiling early on.
Stephen Vogt is another I wish the number was just a bit longer. It’s a market that has done well in this award, and he’s got a bad season to bounce back from. This would be the dream team to start “slow” but actually decent and let another fraudulent candidate take an early lead, at which point we pounce on good Vogt odds. He’s my favorite AL candidate preseason.
Torey Lovullo is most similar to Servais to me. Intriguing young team with a high ceiling. He even has a longer number than Servais, but there just happen to be a different guy I like even more in the same league, so he is relegated to this section.
Best Bet
- San Diego Padres
Mike Schildt and the Padres are perfectly crafted for this award in 2024. The Padres suffered one of the worst luck seasons in a long time in 2023, going 9-23 in one-run games and 2-12 in extra-inning games (obviously there’s some overlap there). They had unbelievably bad luck with RISP to start the season, but once that leveled out, they were actually solid down the stretch (19-7 in September). It was just too late to matter.
Now they’ve lost a couple of very notable players in the offseason, and naturally the arrow is headed down — we like that. If Schildt is able to come in and steady the ship, get this team into the upper 80s for wins and grab a playoff spot (their playoffs odds are a best bet from Sean Zerillo), this has the makings of a great case.
They’re a small market team, have a previous win total and preseason o/u that they’re going to have to clear if they want to make the playoffs anyway, and Schildt is in his first season with the team, so he can grab some of the credit for stabilizing a locker room that was supposedly rocky last season.
At +1600 on BetMGM, he’s tied for the highest among the group of NL managers I see having any chance of the postseason (aka sorry Washington and Colorado), and that’s just a bad read on this award.
This is an award I hawk even more during the season than some of the others just based on how relatively flat the odds are preseason, but at the current number, I love getting a preseason taste on Mike Schildt NL Manager of the Year at +1600 at BetMGM.
