Here are my projected total hits leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at DraftKings:
In the past five seasons, the hits leader finished with between 0.27 and 0.31 hits per plate appearance.
Note that this is a curated leaderboard — I left off the following players, all of whom projected for more than 150 hits but at 0.25 hits per plate appearance or fewer: Rafael Devers, Alec Bohn, Steven Kwan, Julio Rodriguez, Corey Seager, Austin Riley, Manny Machado, Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Ramirez, Alec Bohm, Bobby Witt Jr., Bryan Reynolds, Aaron Judge, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Marcus Semien, Jose Abreu, Nolan Arenado and Pete Alonso.
Last season, I found Luis Arraez at long odds thanks to the hits per plate appearance qualifier (few players break the 0.27 hits per PA tier).
And I'll run Arraez back as my favorite hits leader bet for 2023. He only played in 144 games last season — both because he wasn't in the starting lineup to begin the year and also because he occasionally sat against lefties. The Marlins will attempt to play Arraez as often as possible and also hit him out of the leadoff spot (he occasionally hit third last season).
The projections are selling him short on playing time (around 138 games) and a 200-hit season is within reach, especially without the shift, because he doesn't strikeout (league-low 7.1%) and owns an average walk rate.
Like Arraez, longshots Jeff McNeil, Nico Hoerner or Luis Robert Jr. could cash if they exceed playing time projections (roughly 130-140 games each). Of the three, I prefer Hoerner, who put up a quiet four-win season as he continues to improve his bat-to-ball skills (fifth among qualified hitters in strikeout rate).
McNeil has better contact skills than Hoerner but hits too low in the lineup (5th), and the Mets have too much offensive depth not to occasionally platoon him against lefties.
I bet Bo Bichette at +1200 before his line moved, and I wouldn't play him below +1000. However, you can find matching prices for my other bets in this category.
Amed Rosario finished fifth in hits last season (180) and should continue to improve. He's a lock for everyday playing time and a top-two lineup spot, and I much prefer him to his teammates Kwan and Ramirez (both at 0.25 hits per PA) in the same category, given the production filter.
Most Hits Bets
- Luis Arraez (+2200, 0.15u) at bet365
- Bo Bichette (+1000, 0.1u) at BetMGM
- Nico Hoerner (+6000, 0.05u) at DraftKings
- Jeff McNeil (+4000, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Luis Robert (+6600, 0.05u) at bet365
- Amed Rosario (+2500, 0.1u) at bet365
