Here are my projected runs scored leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at Caesars:
The runs scored leader has averaged between 0.175 and 0.21 runs per plate appearance in the past five seasons.
Therefore, I would largely discount players listed in the lowest projection tier (0.14 runs per plate appearance). And as a result, I removed the following players (all projected between 89-94 runs scored) from the leaderboard: Paul Goldschmidt, Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Matt Olson, Manny Machado, Rafael Devers, Kyle Tucker and Austin Riley.
Mookie Betts should be a co-favorite, and he's my favorite bet in this category at +900 or better.
Still, I don't mind the odds on his teammate, Freddie Freeman, either. Freeman ranks second in baseball in runs scored (495) since 2018. about 40 runs ahead of third place. Betts ranks first by a wide margin (521) over Freeman.
The odds for Julio Rodriguez have dropped since I bet him (at +2000); his current pricing (+1400) is more appropriate, but I'm inclined to bet J-Rod in any category where he has a realistic chance of winning. Runs scored is probably the likeliest considering his lineup spot.
Yordan Alvarez — who is likely priced appropriately given his projection — and Michael Harris II — who moved down from +7500 since I bet him — are my favorite longshots in this category.
Alvarez may threaten a quadruple or quintuple crown — for at least one season — based on his career trajectory.
Harris would move to the top spot in Atlanta's lineup — in the event of a Ronald Acuna Jr. injury — and if he were the expected Opening Day leadoff hitter for the Braves instead of a middle-of-the-order bat, his runs-scored projection would be closer to 100 than 90.
Most Runs Scored Bets
- Mookie Betts (+1100, 0.15u) at Caesars
- Freddie Freeman (+1800, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Julio Rodriguez (+1400, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Michael Harris (+6000, 0.1u) at Caesars
- Yordan Alvarez (+2500, 0.1u) at Caesars
