Here are my projected stolen base, or SB leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their listed odds at FanDuel:
In the past five seasons, the stolen bases leader has averaged between .063 and 0.1 steals per plate appearance.
Therefore, I would largely discount players projected below 0.05 steals per plate appearance. And as a result, I removed the following players (all projected between 20-27 steals) from the leaderboard: Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez, Andres Gimenez, Michael Harris, Kyle Tucker, Nico Hoerner, Corbin Carroll, Whit Merrifield, Tim Anderson, Harrison Bader, Oneil Cruz, Shohei Ohtani, Adolis Garcia, and Marcus Semien.
Perhaps leaving Rodriguez off is in error (since I expect a 40-40 season from him at some point) but I do have a theory — Julio's power is going to become so potent (more on that later) that he may not be on first base often enough to steal 30+ bags.
Bubba Thompson is my favorite bet in the steals market. He's projected to bat ninth and play center field for Texas on Opening Day. Between Triple-A and the majors, Thompson stole 67 bags on 70 attempts and averaged .099 steals per MLB plate appearance. Thompson will rank among the league leaders with full playing time.
I'm not as keen on Dylan Moore (.082 steals per PA in 2022) since he is injured to begin the season, but the playing time upside is similar to Thompson, and the price is better.
Berti — the 2022 steals leader — ranks as highly as anyone on an efficiency basis; I'm just skeptical that he'll receive 400 plate appearances again.
A partial hedge to Berti is a bet on his teammate, Jazz Chisholm, staying healthy. Derek Carty's "Bat X" projections like Chisholm for 36 steals this season, which would rank third in baseball. Chisholm has only averaged .045 steals per PA for his MLB career, but he's one of the fastest regulars in the game and stands to benefit from the new ruleset as much as anyone.
I'll finalize this category with a bet on Jake McCarthy, whose seen his steals per PA average quickly settle at .061 at the MLB level, which is at the lower end of where season-long leaders have finished. McCarthy ranks in the 99th percentile for sprint speed and projects as Arizona's Opening Day No. 3 hitter. He's a considerably better base stealer than Corbin Carroll and potentially Arizona's best fantasy baseball asset.
Most Stolen Bases Bets
- Jon Berti (+2000, 0.1u) at DraftKings
- Jazz Chisholm (+2400, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Jake McCarthy (+2400, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Dylan Moore (+8000, 0.1u) at FanDuel
- Bubba Thompson (+5000, 0.1u) at bet365
