The MLB playoffs continue on Wednesday, October 2, with Wild Card Series Game 2s throughout the day. I have come through with MLB NRFI picks based on my model.
I've only found one NRFI pick with value today, and that's on Mets vs Brewers Game 2 at American Family Field.
MLB NRFI Picks & Model Predictions for Wednesday, Oct. 2
Billy Ward's Mets vs Brewers NRFI Pick for Game 2
Starting Pitchers: LHP Sean Manaea (NYM) vs. RHP Frankie Montas
Both starting pitchers have first time through the order ERAs around 2.60, substantially better than their overall marks.
More importantly, the top of the Mets and Brewers' lineups aren’t especially strong against the types of pitchers they’re facing. Three of the Brewer’s first four projected hitters have significantly worse numbers against lefties, with the lone exception being catcher William Contreras.
The Mets are facing a righty, and by and large, hit lefties better. Brandon Nimmo is the only exception among the first four hitters, and he has a .325 wOBA against RHP compared to .322 against LHP.
All of which means the 7.5 run total is likely to get there later in the game, if at all.
