Quiet day on Thursday, but we hit our lone pick to keep the hot streak rolling. Friday has plenty of more games to choose from, with three of them showing value in my first inning model.
For the curious, you can find a general explanation of the model process in the link below, as well as information on the updates we made for the 2024 season.
Let's get to my MLB NRFI picks and Friday model predictions for April 12.
MLB NRFI Picks, Odds: Friday Model Predictions (April 12)
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings.
Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
Royals vs. Mets (NRFI): The 8.5-run total is a bit higher than I typically like to target for NRFIs, but Mets starter Luis Severino seems to have gotten his mojo back — especially early in games, where he has a 1.85 xFIP his first time through the order this season. Michael Wacha is also solid early in games, with a 3.75 xFIP last season that's improved to 3.35 in the early part of 2024.
Angels vs. Red Sox (YRFI): Getting even-money on the YRFI in a game with a nine-run total is a near-automatic play for me. However, this one is even better thanks to the top-heavy Red Sox lineup. Even with Rafael Devers projected to miss another game, Boston's first three hitters are fairly solid — and my projection would be even stronger if he were to make a surprise return.
Rangers vs. Astros (YRFI): Texas and Houston rank third and fourth in overall wRC+ at the team level this season, and this game has a 9.5-run total. While the YRFI is a bit expensive, I'm still showing value here. That's in large part due to the murderer's row atop the Astros lineup, which features five straight batters who posted wRC+ numbers of at least 125 (100 is league average) last season.
