Tuesday was a solid, if unspectacular, day in the RFI streets. The model picks went 2-1 for a profit of a unit, bringing our season record up to 28-14 through just under two weeks of the season.
We're back at it with three more on Wednesday.
For the curious, you can find a general explanation of the model process in the link below, as well as information on the updates we made for the 2024 season.
Let's get to my MLB NRFI picks from Wednesday's model predictions for April 10.
MLB NRFI Picks, Odds: Wednesday Model Predictions (April 10)
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners (NRFI): Yusei Kikuchi bucks the general trend of Japanese pitchers starting slow, with a somewhat lower xFIP his first time through the order both last season and to start 2024. Logan Gilbert has similar splits, making this a playable line even with the five-run total.
Cubs vs. Padres (NRFI): This game projects nearly identically to the Blue Jays and Mariners contest above, with the same eight run total and similar pitcher splits. And yet, we're getting a much better price on the NRFI. I can't explain it, but I'll certainly bet it.
Orioles vs. Red Sox (YRFI): Both (projected) lineups in this AL East showdown are strong at the top, with Baltimore adding quality hitting from the four and five spots that the model doesn't pick up. With a nine-run total, that's enough to overcome the juice on the FanDuel and BetMGM lines, which are slightly off the market consensus.
