I sound like a broken record, but we turned in another 2-1 day on Wednesday for just under a unit of profit.
The good news is there's no way we'll have another mediocre day on Thursday. The bad news is that's because we only have one pick on a short slate, making it an all or nothing proposition.
We'll take what the market and model gives us rather than try to force thinner edges.
For the curious, you can find a general explanation of the model process in the link below, as well as information on the updates we made for the 2024 season.
Let's get to my MLB NRFI picks and Thursday model predictions for April 11.
MLB NRFI Picks, Odds: Thursday Model Predictions (April 11)
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings.
Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
Orioles vs. Red Sox (YRFI): This was our only losing pick yesterday, but I'm willing to get hurt again. The nine-run total (or juiced to the over 8.5-run total, depending on where you look) is a step up from yesterday's mark, and both pitchers are potentially a step down.
Besides, these teams combined for 12 runs yesterday. I would blindly take the YRFI had I known that coming in.
All that aside, this is a surprisingly generous YRFI line given the games total, so we'll go back to the well again.
