I went 1-1 on MLB NRFI picks on Saturday and then took Sunday off. Let's get back in the winning column on Labor Day with a full day of baseball throughout the holiday.
I have two MLB NRFI picks and predictions on Monday, September 2.
MLB NRFI Picks & Predictions for Monday, September 2
Billy Ward's Brewers vs. Cardinals NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Freddy Peralta vs. Andre Pallante
This game has a 7.5-run total at most books and is already being juiced decently to the under. That instantly puts it on the NRFI radar, but that's not the only factor.
While Cardinals starter Andre Pallante isn't exactly a household name, he's been very solid this season. He has a 3.50 ERA as a starter that drops all the way to 1.89 his first time through the order.
On the other side, Freddy Peralta is a borderline ace who's had four straight years of sub-4.00 ERAs, with slightly better numbers early in games. He also has the easier opponent in the Cardinals.
This bet is priced up a bit — especially if you can't get the -130 at BetMGM or Caesars — but it's worth the cost.
Of course, it could also be used as a parlay piece if you're in the mood for some bigger swings.
Billy Ward's Red Sox vs. Mets NRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Luis Severino vs. Brayan Bello
I don't love targeting either of these teams for NRFIs, as they're both somewhat above average against right-handed pitching.
However, with a total of just 7.5 runs and the solid starting pitchers featured, it's worth taking at -120.
Boston's Brayan Bello has a 4.66 ERA but considerably better underlying numbers. His home ball park boosts scoring by about 14%, while Citi Field reduces it around 6%. That means some of that positive regression should be at play tonight.
Luis Severino has even better numbers and is an early-game specialist with a first-time-through-the-order ERA of just 2.04.
Between the two, that's enough to take the NRFI at the current price, but I wouldn't go much further.
