The MLB playoffs continue on Wednesday, Oct. 9, with four Division Series games.
I have come through with an MLB NRFI pick based on my model for Yankees vs Royals Game 3, which features Clarke Schmidt and Seth Lugo as the game's probable starters.
Find my no runs first inning pick for Yankees vs Royals below.
MLB NRFI Picks & Model Predictions for Wednesday, Oct. 9
Yankees vs Royals NRFI Pick for Game 3
Starting Pitchers: RHP Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs RHP Seth Lugo (KC)
First-inning bets are much trickier in the postseason since the teams remaining largely have the better offenses in the league, but condensed pitching staffs mean we’re only getting top arms on the mound as well.
One spot where that split favors defense – at least relative to market prices – is the ALDS matchup between the Yankees and Royals. While New York has a brutal top of the order featuring Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, Royals starter Seth Lugo has a 2.30 ERA the first time through the order, which elevates each time through the rotation.
On the other side, the Royals are a considerably easier out (ranking 16th in wRC+ against righties) while Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt has even stronger early game stats. His ERA drops to 1.51 his first time through the order.
The October weather should also make home runs a bit harder to come by, which is another factor considering the Yankees' reliance on the long ball.
I’m not projecting a huge edge here, but I’d play the NRFI in this game to -130.
