MLB NRFI Picks: Sunday Model Predictions for Cubs vs Red Sox & More (April 28)
We went 2-2 yesterday with our MLB NRFI bets, for either a slight profit or slight loss depending on what line you got the Dodgers team-specific YRFI at.
It's a busy Sunday, with four more NRFI picks and predictions from our model for today's full slate of baseball games.
MLB NRFI Picks: Sunday Model Predictions
Starting Pitchers: Patrick Corbin vs. Ryan Weathers
I was happy to see plus money on this YRFI line, considering the two pitchers involved.
Finding ways to bet on the continued futility of Patrick Corbin is one of our favorite pastimes here at The Action Network, and his first time through the order xFIP this season is an ugly 5.94 so I'm joining the fun.
Ryan Weathers has better numbers but is due for some regression, so I'll take it despite the struggling offenses.
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Starting Pitchers: Michael Wacha vs. Tarik Skubal
One of the nice things about betting NRFIs is we don't need to worry about weather. Sure, this game might not go a full nine innings — but we only need one.
We have the Tigers ace Tarik Skubal taking on Michael Wacha today, in a game with a total of 7.5 runs.
Both offenses rank in the bottom-ten in terms of wRC+ and both pitchers are solid, so this is a good play even at the juicy price.
Starting Pitchers: Brandond Pfaadt vs. Logan Gilbert
This game has a total of just seven, and two starting pitchers with above-average first time through the order splits.
Be sure to click over to the "innings" tab on Caesars for this one. They have "first inning tie" listed at the same price as the standard NRFI.
Given that there's more ways to hit the tie than just 0-0 — even though the odds are somewhat slim — that raises the expected value on this play a bit.
Starting Pitchers: Hayden Wesnescki vs. Tanner Houck
Both starters in this game have higher xFIP numbers (dating back to the start of 2023) their first time through the order than overall.
Coupled with the nine run total and top-heavy offenses from both the Cubs and Red Sox, that makes the YRFI a clear play for Sunday Night Baseball.
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