We've managed to turn a profit every day of the 2024 season. While that won't last forever, it's an encouraging start to the year. We have three more picks on a somewhat smaller Monday slate.
For the curious, you can find a general explanation of the model process in the link below, as well as information on the updates we made for the 2024 season. Let's get to my MLB NRFI picks on Monday, April 1.
MLB NRFI Picks Today
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
NRFI Odds, Picks for Monday, April 1
Royals vs. Orioles (NRFI): The Orioles present something of a risk here, but Royals starter Michael Wacha had a strong 3.75 xFIP his first time through the order in 2023. Coupled with the Royals' own struggling offense and the low-juice line, that makes this a solid pick.
Mets vs. Tigers (NRFI): This game features a 7.5-run implied total, and two pitchers with solid first-time-through-the-order splits. Hard to ask for much more at the odds available.
Giants vs. Dodgers (YRFI): The top of the Dodgers' order is ridiculous, so we'll be targeting YRFI bets in their games all season. They make up most of the equity, but the Giants are a threat here too against James Paxton — whose first time through the order numbers were worse than his overall stats last season.
