We're off to a solid start in 2024, with another 3-1 day on Friday. We've got all 30 teams in action this weekend so there's plenty of opportunities to stay after it, with six picks today
For the curious, you can find a general explanation of the model process in the link below, as well as information on the updates we made for the 2024 season. Let's get to my MLB NRFI picks on Saturday, March 30.
MLB NRFI Picks Today
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
NRFI Odds, Picks for Saturday, March 30
Phillies vs. Braves (NRFI): We're going back to the well this time, with two more solid starters taking the mound. While Max Fried and Aaron Nola aren't as dominant as Spencer Strider, they both finished 2023 with first time through the order xFIP marks under 3.00.
Angels vs. Orioles (YRFI): I have the fair value in this one between -115 and -120, making even money enough of a value to play. The game has an 8.5-run total, and two starters who fare worse their first time through the order than they do overall.
Twins vs. Royals (NRFI): I have this game with a fairly low chance of a first inning run despite the solid implied total. Both offenses are fairly balanced top-to-bottom, and both starters do their best work the first time through the order. More importantly, DraftKings is offering the NRFI at a line about 15 cents better than the market
Blue Jays vs. Rays (NRFI): I'd only play this one if you can get the BetMGM line, which is even money on the NRFI. That's the only book offering any value relative to my projected line, which is right around -110.
Yankees vs. Astros (NRFI, .5u): This game has a big total at 9.5 runs and these teams have produced a first inning run both of the last two days. However, starters Hunter Brown (2.41 xFIP) and Marcus Stroman (3.13 xFIP) are both fast starters. I'm projecting this one as a coin flip, so getting decent plus-money shows value. I'm playing this at half of my usual ERFIE unit.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks (NRFI, .5u): I have a nearly identical projection in this game as in the Yankees/Astros game above. The total is the same at 9.5 runs, and the weaker pitching here is offset by the weaker hitting. Like that one, I'm playing this plus-money line at half a unit, with the likeliest scenario we hit at least one of the two for a slight profit.
