Week two of the MLB season is off to a strong start, with a 3-0 sweep on Monday. It's a busier Tuesday, with nearly every team in action (barring some possible rainouts) and five first-inning picks across the MLB slate.
For the curious, you can find a general explanation of the model process in the link below, as well as information on the updates we made for the 2024 season. Let's get to my MLB NRFI picks, odds: Tuesday model predictions (April 2).
MLB NRFI Picks, Odds: Tuesday Model Predictions (April 2)
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
NRFI Odds, Picks for Tuesday, April 2
Royals vs. Orioles (NRFI): We're going back to the well in this series, as both teams have fairly balanced lineups that limit the first inning run projections. While the total is higher today at 8.5 runs, both pitchers also feature solid first time through the order splits.
Rangers vs. Rays (YRFI): This game has the same total as Royals vs. Orioles, but with two lineups that are far stronger through the first four hitters. We'll be taking a lot of YRFI bets on both of these teams this season.
Cardinals vs. Padres (NRFI): The first time through the order splits on Yu Darvish scare me a bit, but this is a very fair line considering the 7.5 run total. If you're going to skip one of these today, make it this one, but the numbers check out to make it a value.
Yankees vs. Diamondbacks (YRFI): The Yankees probably have the best first three hitters in the American League, making them another frequent YRFI candidate — especially in games with nine-run totals.
Guardians vs. Mariners (NRFI): We have a seven-run total and two starting pitchers who perform much better early in games. This one's worth it even at a somewhat juicy line, and my model has it as the least-likely game on the slate to have a first inning run.
