Opening Day was good to us, as we cashed all three of our full-unit bets for an overall record of 3-1. Let's keep the ball rolling on Friday, with four more picks.
For the curious, you can find a general explanation of the model process in the link below, as well as information on the updates we made for the 2024 season. Let's get to the picks.
The Picks
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
NRFI Odds, Picks for Friday, March 29
Phillies vs. Braves (NRFI): I'm tempted to just write "Spencer Strider" and leave it at that. As dominant as the Braves' ace was overall last season, he was even better early in games, with a 2.47 xFIP his first time through the order. The Phillies' Zack Wheeler wasn't far behind at 2.62, which more than makes up for the strong offenses involved.
Blue Jays vs. Rays (NRFI): While this game has an eight-run total, both starting pitchers are far better early in games than late. Like the Phillies vs. Braves game, that should be enough to overcome solid offenses, especially at the low-juice odds we can get this one.
Yankees vs. Astros (YRFI): We're going back to the well with this pick that cashed for us yesterday. It projects even better today thanks to a higher game total and Carlos Rodon starting for the Yanks. He had an xFIP over 6.00 (and ERA over 9.00) his first time through the order last season. While he won't be that bad this season, the matchup against the lefty-mashing Astros is far from a get-right spot.
Athletics vs. Guardians (NRFI): This is a surprisingly low line considering the 7.5-run total and relatively poor offenses involved in the contest. Both pitchers were also somewhat better early in games last season, with likely improvements in his sophomore campaign from the Guardians' Logan Allen.
