We weren't able to find any playable lines on Monday, but we're back on Tuesday with bets for both Divisional Round contests.
There's also a pair of boosts being offered by DraftKings today that we can use to further enhance these odds, making it a great day to bet on some first innings.
The Model
The process is relatively simple. First, I start by assuming that the full game (implied) run totals for either team are roughly efficient. As mentioned above, that tends to be the case more often than not. This saves me the trouble of trying to predict the total runs scored in the game — and allows me to focus strictly on the "when" rather than "how many."
Next, I built a database of pitchers performance the first time through the order, relative to their overall stats. Since the latter is presumably baked into the full game total, I wanted to figure out if those runs are more likely to come early or late. Most — but not all — MLB starters do somewhat better early in games, but with some variance in just how much. The model uses xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) as the ERA predictor of choice.
That's only half of the equation, though, with the offenses making up the other half. To do this, I looked at what percentage of a team's total runs is produced by the top three batters in the lineup. While a first inning run scored, by definition, needs at least four hitters to come to the plate, one of the first three has to actually score it. The metric of choice here is wRC+, based on the projected lineup for the day from each team.
This is a bit of a tradeoff, as lineups (and run totals) can shift throughout the day, especially if significant contributors miss time. However, in my experience the inefficiency of the morning lines more than makes up for the leakage in the model. With that said, exercise caution if, say, Mike Trout is listed as questionable for the night's game.
The Picks
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
NRFI Odds, Picks for Tuesday, October 10
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins NRFI (-120 at DraftKings): The bulk of the value here is based on Sonny Gray's sub-2.00 ERA his first time through the order, which gives him one of the more extreme splits of any starter. Astros starter Cristian Javier isn't quite as dominant early in games with his 4.05 ERA, but he's facing the less-imposing offense in the Twins. I'm using DraftKings' 25% boost on any MLB bet for the no run line here, which brings the odds to +104, though I'd be more than happy to bet the -120 unboosted line — which is also best on DraftKings.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers YRFI (-111 at FanDuel): This game has a nine-run total, which is on the higher side for what we've seen so far in the playoffs. It also features two pitchers with middle-of-the-road first time through the order splits, and two offenses that get most of their production from the top. This is a good bet at -111 on FanDuel, and a great one at +115 using DraftKings' 33% YRFI/NRFI profit boost.
