We officially had a slight loss on Tuesday going 1-1 across the two games, but hopefully most people following these bets were able to book a profit thanks to some fairly generous bonuses on both picks.
Two more picks today, including another made possible by a profit boost on DraftKings.
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The Model
The process is relatively simple. First, I start by assuming that the full game (implied) run totals for either team are roughly efficient. As mentioned above, that tends to be the case more often than not. This saves me the trouble of trying to predict the total runs scored in the game — and allows me to focus strictly on the "when" rather than "how many."
Next, I built a database of pitchers performance the first time through the order, relative to their overall stats. Since the latter is presumably baked into the full game total, I wanted to figure out if those runs are more likely to come early or late. Most — but not all — MLB starters do somewhat better early in games, but with some variance in just how much. The model uses xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) as the ERA predictor of choice.
That's only half of the equation, though, with the offenses making up the other half. To do this, I looked at what percentage of a team's total runs is produced by the top three batters in the lineup. While a first inning run scored, by definition, needs at least four hitters to come to the plate, one of the first three has to actually score it. The metric of choice here is wRC+, based on the projected lineup for the day from each team.
This is a bit of a tradeoff, as lineups (and run totals) can shift throughout the day, especially if significant contributors miss time. However, in my experience the inefficiency of the morning lines more than makes up for the leakage in the model. With that said, exercise caution if, say, Mike Trout is listed as questionable for the nights game.
The Picks
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
NRFI Odds, Picks for Wednesday, October 11
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (+108 at BetRivers): Phillies starter Aaron Nola has been one of our favorite pitchers to take NRFIs on, with his ERA 30% lower his first time through the order. I'm less confident in the Braves' Bryce Elder, but it's worth a sprinkle at plus-money.
Before wagering on Braves-Phillies, unlock bonus bets using Action’s BetRivers promo code.
Arizona Diamondbacks Team-Specific YRFI (+200 at DraftKings): This is my favorite way to take advantage of the 25% profit boost on any MLB bet today on DraftKings. I have the un-boosted line of +160 just below Arizona's true odds of a first inning run today, but with the boost the odds become +200. That's a strong value, and we get more out of profit boosts by using them on longer odds, so I prefer this to the full game line.
