We got off to a solid start to the playoffs on Tuesday, cashing two of our three picks (and taking advantage of some solid bonuses along the way).
Let's keep it rolling today, with a couple more selections.
The Model
The process is relatively simple. First, I start by assuming that the full game (implied) run totals for either team are roughly efficient. As mentioned above, that tends to be the case more often than not. This saves me the trouble of trying to predict the total runs scored in the game — and allows me to focus strictly on the "when" rather than "how many."
Next, I built a database of pitchers performance the first time through the order, relative to their overall stats. Since the latter is presumably baked into the full game total, I wanted to figure out if those runs are more likely to come early or late. Most — but not all — MLB starters do somewhat better early in games, but with some variance in just how much. The model uses xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) as the ERA predictor of choice.
That's only half of the equation, though, with the offenses making up the other half. To do this, I looked at what percentage of a team's total runs is produced by the top three batters in the lineup. While a first inning run scored, by definition, needs at least four hitters to come to the plate, one of the first three has to actually score it. The metric of choice here is wRC+, based on the projected lineup for the day from each team.
This is a bit of a tradeoff, as lineups (and run totals) can shift throughout the day, especially if significant contributors miss time. However, in my experience the inefficiency of the morning lines more than makes up for the leakage in the model. With that said, exercise caution if, say, Mike Trout is listed as questionable for the night's game.
The Picks
With all of the picks below, I'll include the pick, the best line and the threshold I'd bet it to. These will go up in the morning, so if any major news breaks between publishing and when you read it, be sure to consider that.
Infrequently, rather than betting on the traditional YRFI/NRFI, the pick will be on one team or the other specifically to score a run, which as of this writing is only a betting option at DraftKings. Since the model handles each team individually, sometimes one team is projecting for a greater proportion of the "run equity" in the first inning than the betting lines are accounting for.
NRFI Odds, Picks for Wednesday, October 4
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays YRFI (+106 at FanDuel, use our FanDuel Promo Code for extra value): These teams both rank inside the top five overall against right-handed pitching, and in the top 10 in terms of production share from their first three hitters. While it's a difficult pitching matchup on both sides, the strength of the offenses is enough to take this at plus-money.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins NRFI (-115 at FanDuel): While these teams are similarly strong overall as the teams in the early game, both are far more balanced on offense, with the tops of their orders both in the bottom third of the league. Coupled with equally strong pitching matchups, that makes the NRFI the better play in this one.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers NRFI (-130 at DraftKings): The only matchup between two below-average offenses today (against the handedness of the pitcher they're facing, at least) makes this a solid NRFI play, especially considering the strong first time through the order splits of both pitchers. This is the only line I'm playing on DraftKings today, making it an ideal candidate for the 25% MLB profit boost.
