We had a rough break yesterday with the Tigers pulling Jack Flaherty from his scheduled start amidst possible trade rumors after we took the NRFI in that game — and his replacement predictably got shelled in the first inning. That brought us to 1-2 overall on the day.
With the trade deadline set for this evening, I'm approaching with caution today, as more players could be on the move.
Just two and a half MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Tuesday, July 30.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks | Model Predictions
Starting Pitchers: Michael Wacha vs. Jonathan Cannon
The most notable thing about this game is that most sportsbooks have moved the total to nine runs, while a few are still at 8.5. With the YRFI operating as a function of the game total, that makes the -105 line at Caesars a solid pick and an easy way to get some CLV.
We don't love taking YRFIs on the worst offense in baseball, but the White Sox spoiled our NRFI yesterday, so anything can happen. Still, most of the value is on Kansas City against Jonathan Cannon, who holds a mid-four ERA as a starter.
Royals team-specific angles make sense here, too, but my projections prefer the full-game YRFI at the current prices.
Starting Pitchers: Patrick Corbin vs. Ryne Nelson
Two pitchers I don't expect to be on the move are Patrick Corbin and Ryne Nelson — because nobody wants them.
Nelson has an upper-four ERA with slightly better underlying numbers, while Corbin sits on the wrong side of 5.00. Their first time through the order ERAs are similar, with Nelson at 4.63 and Corbin at 5.01.
Arizona is also solidly on the better side of their platoon splits against the lefty Corbin, with leadoff man Ketel Marte driving much of that difference. Like the above game, this total will likely jump another half-run by the first pitch, so grab the YRFI before that happens.
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Glasnow vs. Matt Waldron
The top of the Dodgers order isn't what it once was, with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman missing from the lineup. However, they still have Shoehei Ohtani, Will Smith, and Teoscar Hernandez among their first four hitters.
Those are all well above-average bats, that putting it mildly in the case of Ohtani.
This gives them a solid shot against San Diego's Matt Waldron and his 4.40 first-time through-the-order ERA. That number suggests he allows about half a run per inning on his first trip against an average team.
Even in their diminished state, this Dodgers lineup is well above average, so getting north of two-to-one odds is worth taking.
