MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Friday Model Picks & Predictions (July 19)
Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Tanner Bibee (Guardians)
We cleared 40 units just before the All-Star break, and now we're back and looking to add more in the home stretch of the MLB season.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks for Friday, July 19.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Friday, July 19
Starting Pitchers: Frankie Montas vs. Patric Corbin
While they don't always hit, on paper, the YRFI in Patrick Corbin games usually project fairly well. He has a 5.57 ERA, with an xERA about a run higher and an xFIP about a run lower. I'm not sure which is the most accurate representation of his abilities at this point, but neither are great numbers.
More importantly, his xFIP is over 5.00 his first time through the order. He's facing a Reds team that's somewhat better against lefties overall and very "top heavy" with their offensive production.
The Nationals aren't drawing dead to score either. They're also on the correct side of their platoon splits against the righty Frankie Montas, who's ERA and underlying numbers are all in the mid-fours. Like Corbin, he has an xFIP over 5.00 his first time through the order.
Plus, we have a top-10 hitters park and favorable hitting weather in Washington tonight, so all signs are pointing the same way on this one.
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Chris Bassitt
We all know how good Jack Flaherty has been this season. He has a 3.13 ERA and better underlying numbers, thanks in large part to a 32% strikeout rate that would rank top-five among qualified starters (Flaherty is 0.2 innings short of qualifying heading into Friday).
He's facing a roughly league-average Toronto offense that's picked up a bit recently, but doesn't have a major threat in the top of the lineup — unless you count over-performing rookie Spencer Horwitz.
As good as Flaherty has been this season, his 2.87 first-time-through-the-order ERA is actually the higher of the two starters in this game, with Chris Bassitt coming in at 1.79 against the first nine hitters he faces.
Bassitt has been nowhere near as good overall, but his ERA shows a steady rise the deeper he goes into games, making him a solid bet to get through three outs against an equally "meh" Tigers offense.
With the total falling to 7.5 runs, this is a solid price on the NRFI, though I wouldn't go much past the Caesars line.
Starting Pitchers: Matt Waldron vs. Tanner Bibee
I'm a little worried about this one based on how good the Padres are against righties. They're a top-three team in wRC+ on the season, trailing only the Dodgers and the Yankees.
However, there's a reason they're implied for around 3.5 runs today. That's Guardians starter Tanner Bibee, who has a 3.77 overall ERA that drops more than a run his first time through the order. His underlying numbers are better both overall and early in games, and Progressive Field is the second hardest park in baseball to score runs in.
Padres starter Matt Waldron has less impressive numbers, with a 3.71 overall ERA but ERA predictors ranging from slightly to moderately worse. He's not particularly impressive early in games, with roughly league-average splits.
However, he has an easier task against a Guardians lineup that's below average against right-handed pitching this year, making this worth playing at relatively low juice.
How would you rate this article?
