I went 3-2 over the weekend in picks posted to the Action Network Discord — be sure to sign up there for extra picks or to talk ball with our experts.
Let's get some wins to start the week right on Monday.
I have three more MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Monday, July 29.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Picks | Model Predictions
Guardians vs. Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Tanner Bibee
Editor's Note: Flaherty was scratched from this scheduled start.
-139 is a fairly steep price to pay for the NRFI in this AL Central showdown, but that should be expected with two strong starting pitchers taking on two poor offenses.
The Detroit Tigers rank 22nd in wRC+ against righties this year but are without their best hitter, Riley Greene, due to an injury.
The Cleveland Guardians are better at 17th — but they have a tougher pitching matchup against Flaherty.
Flaherty's first time through the order ERA is 2.49, just ahead of Bibee's 2.66. Those are strong numbers for both pitchers and justify paying the juice on this pick.
Mariners vs. Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Logan Gilbert vs. Nick Pivetta
This is a case of the NRFI standing out because the better pitcher, Logan Gilbert, is facing the better offense, the Red Sox. Gilbert has a 2.72 overall ERA that drops to 2.05 his first time through the order, which should be enough against a solid Boston lineup.
Nick Pivetta is more average than good, but he has solid first time through the order splits with a 3.19 ERA and 3.02 xFIP early in games.
I'd feel better about this one if the game was in Seattle thanks to their Park Factor, which ranks 30th for offense, as opposed to Boston, which ranks second for offense, but we can take the risk at current prices.
Royals vs. White Sox
Starting Pitchers: Chris Flexen vs. Alec Marsh
I typically don't take the NRFI in games with a total of nine, but there typically isn't even money available on the NRFI when the White Sox are playing either.
Baseball's worst offense takes the field against Alec Marsh, who has a 4.80 ERA this season and slightly better early-game numbers. I wouldn't trust him against many teams, but even he should be able to get through Chicago's lineup.
On the other side, it's a better offense in the Royals but a better pitcher as well — at least early in games. Chris Flexen has a 5.49 ERA that drops to 2.40 his first time through the order. That makes intuitive sense for the occasional reliever and gives him a decent shot against the Royals.
