MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Saturday Model Picks & Predictions (July 20)
Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Yusei Kikuchi
It was a nice return to action yesterday, going 2-1 across three bets.
I have two more MLB NRFI & YRFI model picks and predictions for Saturday, July 20.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Saturday, July 20
Starting Pitchers: Nestor Cortes vs. Taj Bradley
I almost never take NRFIs in Yankees games, owing to the extreme top-heavy nature of their lineup. Today's projected lineup includes two of the top hitters in baseball in their first three, and nobody even above average from four through nine.
However, the combination of the price on the NRFI and the excellent splits from both pitchers makes today an exception.
Rays starter Taj Bradley has been elite early in games, with a 1.88 ERA and 1.86 xFIP his first time through the order. The Yankees' Cortes is in the low threes in both categories, but obviously has a much easier chance for opposing teams to get out.
My projection is based on a game total of 8.5 runs, but some books have dropped the number to 8 — so jump on this fast as the price likely increases if other shops follow suit.
Starting Pitchers: Reese Olson vs. Yusei Kikuchi
We hit this bet yesterday, and have a similar projection on Saturday's slate.
Neither offense is especially top heavy, and both are below MLB average against the type of pitcher they're facing tonight.
Plus, both pitcher's are solid-to-great. The Tigers' Olson has a 3.30 ERA that drops more than a full run his first time through the order, while Kikuchi has a 3.07 ERA/2.54 xFIP early in games.
That's enough to justify the current price, though I wouldn't go much past what's offered at BetRivers.
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