We took a slight loss a few days ago, going 1-1 while paying the juice on our losing bet this past Friday. After taking Saturday off, let's get back in the profit column today.
Let's dive into my three MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Sunday, June 2.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Sunday Model Picks & Predictions
Twins vs. Astros
Starting Pitchers: Simeon Woods-Richardson vs. Hunter Brown
This one is a little scary, but the price we're getting makes it to good to pass up.
The first reason it feels risky is the Astros, who's top of the lineup is very solid. However, they're taking on Simeon Woods-Richardson, who has a 2.70 ERA overall that drops to 1.50 his first time through the order. His xFIP numbers aren't quite as strong, but similarly decline early in games.
The other concern is Hunter Brown, who has a 6.39 ERA this season. His xERA and xFIP are both under four though, meaning he's been very unlucky. It's been a tale of two seasons for Brown, who had a 9.78 ERA at the end of April, but a 3.42 ERA in May.
He's also considerably better early than late, making this a solid edge in my model.
Rays vs. Orioles
Starting Pitchers: Zack Littell vs. Cole Irvin
While neither starter in this game is a household name, they both come into the contest with ERAs under 3.50 on the season. More importantly for the NRFI, both also see their ERAs drop about a full run their first time through the order.
We're also catching Baltimore on the correct side of their platoon splits. They're the league's best offense against lefties by wRC+, but only slightly above average against righties.
All of which is enough to overcome the somewhat high total, at least with the NRFI around even money.
Tigers vs. Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Casey Mize vs. Brayan Bello
There's a lot to like in this game, starting with the nine-run total. We've also got very favorable hitting weather, and Fenway Park is the second-best park for offense in baseball by Park Factors.
The Tigers wRC+ as a team jumps 20 points when facing righties instead of lefties, putting them firmly on the correct side of their platoon splits today, while Boston has identical numbers.
Both teams are also extremely top heavy, with well above-average hitters early in the lineup, followed by barely replacement level players.
Finally, both pitchers see both their xFIP jump the first time through the order, with Bello's 6.00 ERA early in games especially noteworthy.
