We squeaked out a slight profit yesterday, officially going 2-2, but with one of the losses on a half-unit bet.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Thursday, June 13, so let's dive in.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Thursday, June 13
Nationals vs. Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Patrick Corbin vs. Casey Mize
We've missed in both directions so far in this series, with Thursday as the last chance to get one back.
Fortunately, the projection is pretty clear thanks to the two starters involved.
Patrick Corbin has an overall ERA of 6.15, which is somehow lower than his 6.94 xERA. His first-time-through-the-order xFIP is an unsightly 5.75 as well.
Former No. 1 pick Casey Mize has been better than that, but still not good in 2024. After missing all of last season with Tommy John surgery, he has a 4.73 ERA and only slightly better ERA predictors.
Like Corbin, his xFIP is also higher the first time through the order than his overall mark.
With both teams' lineups also coming in as fairly top heavy, the odds of a first-inning run are strong here.
Pirates vs. Cardinals
Starting Pitchers: Mitch Keller vs. Lance Lynn
The two starters in this game have a lot in common. While they both have solid ERAs — with Keller at 3.16 and Lynn at 3.52 — both have xERAs close to a full run higher.
On top of that, both have a first-time-through-the-order xFIP about half a run higher than their overall mark.
Taken together, those numbers suggest both pitchers are due for some regression overall, with it fairly likely to come early in the game.
With an 8.5-run total and excellent hitting weather, that's enough to take the YRFI at the low-juice price currently on offer.
White Sox vs. Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet vs. Luis Castillo
We're 2-0 on the NRFI in this series, with one more chance to pick up a win on Thursday.
We've hit both NRFIs despite lesser pitchers taking the mound. But today, we have both teams' ace.
Garrett Crochet of the White Sox has a 3.33 overall ERA, even better ERA indicators and both his ERA and xFIP drop further his first time through the order. His 34.3% strikeout rate is especially problematic for Seattle, which strikes out at the league's highest rate against righties.
On the other side, Luis Castillo holds a 3.35 overall ERA that drops all the way down to 1.75 his first time through the order.
Plus, he gets to face the White Sox, who are now tied for the worst wRC+ in baseball against righties.
While this NRFI is a fairly steep price, Caesars is well off the market at -150. The best price I'm seeing anywhere else is -175, and I have a fair value of nearly -200.
I'd still look to get some exposure if the Caesars line continues to move, perhaps by parlaying it with a "safe" bet of your choosing.
