Oddsmakers seem to have gotten sharper with their NRFI/YRFI lines in recent weeks, and it's getting harder to find exploitable value. That led to nothing standing out yesterday.
However, we're back today with a few picks for an unusually full Thursday slate.
I have three MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Thursday, June 6.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Thursday Model Picks & Predictions
Royals vs. Guardians
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee vs. Brady Singer
With a 7.5-run total, I'd almost blindly take a NRFI at the FanDuel price. It works out to 53% implied, and NRFIs have hit around 54% of the time overall this year, but the median game has a total somewhat higher than this one.
That's not the only reason to like it, either. The two starters involved have a 3.99 combined ERA their first time through the order, with reasonably solid underlying metrics as well — though Singer's stat line is confusing, with a 2.63 ERA, 4.36 xERA, and other metrics are somewhere in between.
Both teams are also considerably worse against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 14th and 15th in wRC+. However, both are among the top ten against lefties. That's the icing on the cake for this pick with two righties on the mound.
Dodgers vs. Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Bailey Falter vs. Walker Buehler
Even in tough matchups, the Dodgers are fairly likely to put up runs. They got to Paul Skenes for three runs across five innings yesterday — the same amount he had allowed over his previous 18 innings.
Now they draw a much softer matchup with Bailey Falter. Falter has a 3.22 ERA, but it's fairly misleading because all of his underlying metrics are in the mid fours. His ERA is also slightly higher his first time through the order, so he's beatable early — especially by a Dodgers lineup with the second-best wRC+ against lefties in the MLB.
I'd take the -105 line at BetMGM regardless of your thoughts on Walker Buehler. He missed all of 2023 and the start of this season, with five appearances so far. Through those five games, he has a 4.32 ERA that jumps north of six his first time through the order, but the sample size isn't large enough to read too heavily into.
If you expect him to get back to his pre-injury form, I wouldn't lay the heavier juice at other sportsbooks and instead look at the Dodgers team YRFI or first-inning moneyline. However, if his current numbers hold, the Pirates have enough equity here to make this playable at the widely available -115 to -120 range.
Twins vs. Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Pablo Lopez vs. Marcus Stroman
This is another tricky game to project. We have one pitcher in Lopez with a 4.84 ERA, but underlying metrics mostly in the low threes. His opponent has the opposite scenario, with a 2.73 ERA but ERA indicators in the mid fours.
Regardless of your stance on regression, at least one of these pitchers has fairly bad numbers, though. On top of that, Stroman's ERA and xFIP both increase early in games. While Lopez is typically better early, he has to face the Yankees — the best team in baseball against righties.
Getting through Aaron Judge and Juan Soto unscathed is a monumental task, plus the Twins have a reasonable projection as well, making this a strong pick at close to even money.
