MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Thursday Model Predictions (5/30)
Via Kevin D. Liles/Getty Images. Pictured: Reynaldo López #40 of Atlanta Braves celebrates after leaving the game during the seventh inning of game one of a doubleheader against the San Diego Padres at Truist Park on May 20, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia.
Breaking even is better than losing, as we discovered yesterday going 1-1 for a return of zero units. Let's get back in the profit column today on a smaller Thursday slate.
I have two MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model predictions for Thursday, May 30.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets for Thursday
Astros vs. Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Spencer Arrigheti vs. Logan Gilbert
We're going back to the well with yesterday's winner, which comes with a slightly better price on Thursday despite a 7.5-run total heavily juiced to the under.
Houston NRFIs are always somewhat scary, thanks to the strength at the top of their order. However, they have the tougher pitching matchup against Logan Gilbert, who has a 3.06 overall ERA and 2.94 xFIP his first time through the order.
Spencer Arrigheti's 6.94 ERA doesn't exactly inspire much confidence, but there are some significant caveats to that number. His underlying metrics are in the high threes and low fours, while his first time through the order xFIP is 3.49.
Given the easier matchup for Arrigheti and the low total, this one's worth the risk.
Nationals vs. Braves
Starting Pitchers: Trevor Williams vs. Reynaldo Lopez
Losing Ronald Acuña for the season makes the Braves a much more appealing NRFI team. Even considering their full-season stats, they're barely an above-average team against righties, and they should now be worse without their superstar outfielder.
Williams has also been a bright spot for the Nationals, with a sub-three ERA both overall and his first time through the order.
Lopez has been even better for Atlanta, with a 1.75 overall ERA that drops to 0.86 his first time through the order.
The nine-run total isn't great here, but the under is heavily juiced and has dropped to 8.5 at some books, so this is probably the sharp side to be on.
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