We went 2-1 on a smaller Thursday slate, our first winning day of the week. Hopefully we can keep some momentum heading into the weekend, especially with a full Friday of baseball in front of us.
We have three more MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model picks for Friday, June 21.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Friday, June 21
White Sox vs. Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Erick Fedde
Anytime the Tigers are the likelier team to score a first inning run, it's probably a good time for the NRFI.
This game has a 7.5-run total — which I wouldn't be surprised to see close lower — and two bad offenses. Chicago is by far the worst team in baseball against righties, while Detroit ranks 23rd.
What makes paying the juice worth it here is the quality of the starting pitchers. Jack Flaherty has been elite with a 2.17 overall xFIP this year, and that number dips below 2.00 his first time through the order.
Erick Fedde hasn't been that good, but his 3.09 ERA and 3.52 xFIP are nothing to sneeze at either. Like Flaherty, he's even better early on, with his xFIP dipping to 2.76 and his ERA to 2.01 his first time through the order.
Braves vs. Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale vs. Carlos Rodon
This is a tough one considering the quality of the starting pitchers, but the line has moved far enough into plus-money territory that it's worth taking.
Both starters have ERAs around 3.00, with Chris Sale slightly below and Carlos Rodon slightly above. Neither is especially good or bad their first time through the order, though Rodon's ERA indicators (both early in games and overall) are somewhat higher than his ERA.
However, these are two strong offenses, particularly at the top. The Braves hit lefties better than righties, with much of that driven by their number two and three hitters.
New York has worse splits against left-handed pitching, but three of its first four hitters are on the right side of their platoon splits, including Aaron Judge, the best overall hitter in baseball.
That's enough for me here, though I'm considering making this a half-unit bet.
Twins vs. Athletics
Starting Pitchers: Chris Paddack vs. Joey Estes
This is an interesting one, because at first glance both starters are having rough seasons. They both have overall ERAs above 5.00, but that doesn't paint the full picture.
Chris Paddack's overall ERA predictors are in the high-three/low-four range, while Estes' are in the low fours. They've both been various degrees of unlucky so far.
More importantly for the NRFI, they're both considerably better early in games as well. Estes has a 3.07 ERA/3.19 xFIP his first time through the order, with Paddack having a 3.62 xFIP.
That should be enough against a Twins team that hits righties well worse than lefties and an Oakland team with a below average offense overall.
